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In 2014 the sixth ESAR conference (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was held in Hannover. ESAR is an international convention of experts, who analyze traffic accidents all over the world and discuss their results in this context, conducted at the Medizinische Hochschule Hannover every 2 years. It connected representatives of public authorities, engineers in automotive development and scientists and offers a forum with particular emphasis on In-Depth-Analyses of accident statistics and accident analyses. Special focus is placed on research on the basis of so-called "In-Depth-Accident-Investigations" [data collections at the sites of the accidents], which are characterized by extensive documentations of the sites of the accidents, of the vehicles as well as of the injuries, encompassing several scientific fields. ESAR aims at a multi-disciplinary compilation of scientific results and at discussing them on an international, scientific level. It is thus a scientific colloquium and a platform for exchanging information for all accident researchers. Experiences in accident prevention as well as in the complex field of accident reconstruction are stated and new research fields are added. Existing results of long-term research work in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan include different infrastructural correlations and give findings on population, vehicle population and driver characteristics, which offer a basis for recommendations to be derived and measures for increasing road safety.
Cycling supports the independence and health of the aging population. However, elderly cyclists have an increased injury risk. The majority of injured cyclists is victim of a single-sided accident, an accident in which there is no other party involved. The aim of the project "Safe and Aware on the bicycle" is to develop guidelines for an advisory system that is useful in preventing single-sided accidents. This system is able to support the elderly cyclist; enabling the cyclist to timely adapt his cycling behaviour and improve cycling safety and comfort. For the development of such advisory system the causes of singles accidents and the wishes of the elderly cyclist must be known. First step to obtain this insight was a literature survey and an GIDAS research. Unfortunately accidentology research with GIDAS did not give the full understanding of the pre-crash situations and (especially the behaviour related) factors leading to the accident. The second step was consultation of elderly cyclist through a questionnaire (n=800), in-depth interviews (n=12) and focus group sessions (n=15). This offered complementary information and a much better understanding of the behavioural aspects. Results concern the behaviour in traffic and identify specific physical (i.e. problems looking backwards over the shoulder) and mental issues. Furthermore, the needs and wishes for support in specific cycling situations were identified. In conclusion; The GIDAS results together with the information obtained contacting the elderly cyclists enabled setting up requirements for an advisory system, which is useful in preventing single-sided accidents.
A methodology to derive precision requirements for automatic emergency braking (AEB) test procedures
(2015)
AEB Systems are becoming important to increase traffic safety. Test procedures in testing for consumer information, manufacturer self-certification and technical regulations are used to ensure a certain minimum performance of these systems. Consequently, test robustness, test efficiency and finally test cost become increasingly important. The key driver for testing effort and test costs is the required repeatable accuracy in a test design - the higher the accuracy, the higher effort and test costs. On the other hand, the performance of active safety systems depends on time discretization in the environment perception and other sub-systems: for instance, typical sensors supply information with a cycle time of 50 - 150 ms. Time discretization results in an inherent spread of system performance, even if the test conditions are perfectly equal. The proposed paper shows a methodology to derive requirements for a test setup (e.g. test repeats, use of driving robots, ...) as function of AEB system generation and rating method (e.g. Euro NCAP points awarded, pass/fail, ...). While the methodology itself is applicable to AEB pedestrian and AEB Car-Car scenarios, due to the lack of sufficient test data for AEB Car-Car, the focus of this paper is on AEB pedestrian scenarios. A simulation model for the performance of AEB Pedestrian systems allows for the systematic variation of the discretization time as well as test condition accuracy. This model is calibrated with test results of 4 production vehicles for AEB Pedestrian, all fully tested by BASt according to current Euro NCAP test protocols. Selected parameters to observe the accuracy of the test setup in case of pedestrian AEB is the calculated impact position of pedestrian on the vehicle front (as if no braking would have occurred), and the test vehicle speed accuracy. These variable was shown in real tests to be repeatable in the range of ± 5 cm and ± 0,25 km/h, respectively, with a fully robotized state of the art test setup. The sensitivity of AEB performance (measured in achieved speed reduction as well as overall rating result according to current Euro NCAP rating methods) towards discretization and the sensitivity of performance towards test accuracy then is compared to identify economic yet robust test concepts. These comparisons show that the available repeatability accuracy of current test setups is more than sufficient for today's AEB system capabilities. Time discretization problems dominate the performance spread especially in test scenarios with a limited pedestrian dummy reveal time (e.g. child behind obstruction, running adult scenarios with low car speeds). This would allow to increase test tolerances to decrease test cost. A methodology which allows to derive the required tolerances in active safety tests might be valuable especially for NCAPs of emerging countries that do not have the necessary equipment (e.g. driving robots, positioning units) available for the full-scale and high tolerance EuroNCAP active safety procedures yet still want to rate active safety systems, thus improving the global safety.
Pedestrians represent about 20% of the overall fatalities in Europe- road traffic accidents. In this paper a methodology is proposed to understand why the numbers are so high, especially in the south of Europe and particularly in Portugal, . First a detailed statistical analysis using Ordinal Logistic Regression model (OLR) was applied to the gathered data from all Portuguese accidents with victims in the period 2010-2012. In a second stage accident reconstruction computational techniques using pedestrian biomechanical models are used to evaluate the accident conditions that lead to the injuries, such as the speed and the impact location. For biomechanical injury criterions, the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale), the HIC (Head Injury Criterion) and other injury criterions based on the resulting accelerations in the pedestrian's body are used. The statistical model reported that there were several predictors that significantly influenced the pedestrian injury severity in the event of a road accident, such as Pedestrian's age, Pedestrian's gender, Vehicle Design/Category or Driver's gender. The use of injury scales and biomechanical criterions in in-depth investigation of road accidents, such as AIS, can significantly improve the quality of the reconstruction process.
Road accidents are typically analyzed to address influences of human, vehicle, and environmental (primarily infrastructure) factors. A new methodology, based on a "Venn diagram" analysis, gives a broader perspective on the probable factors, and combinations of factors, contributing both to the occurrence of a crash and to sustaining injuries in that crash. The methodology was applied to 214 accidents on the Mumbai-Pune expressway. Factors contributing to accidents and injuries were addressed. The major human factors influencing accidents on this roadway were speeding (30%) and falling asleep (29%), while injuries were primarily due to lack of seat belt use (46%). The leading infrastructure factor for injuries was impact with a roadside manmade structure (28%), and the main vehicle factor for injuries was passenger compartment intrusion (73%). This methodology can help identify effective vehicle and infrastructure-related solutions for preventing accidents and mitigating injuries in India.
This study aimed at prediction of long bone fractures and assessment of lower extremity injury mechanisms in real world passenger car to pedestrian collision. For this purpose, two pedestrian accident cases with detail recorded lower limb injuries were reconstructed via combining MBS (Multi-body system) and FE (Finite element) methods. The code of PC Crash was used to determine the boundary conditions before collision, and then MBS models were used to reproduce the pedestrian kinematics and injuries during crash. Furthermore, a validated lower limb FE model was chosen to conduct reconstruction of injuries and prediction of long bone fracture via physical parameters of von Mises stress and bending moment. The injury outcomes from simulations were compared with hospital recorded injury data and the same long bone fracture patterns and positions can be observed. Moreover, the calculated long bone fracture tolerance corresponded to the outcome from cadaver tests. The result shows that FE model is capable to reproduce the dynamic injury process and is an effective tool to predict the risk of long bone fractures.
Accident simulation and reconstruction for enhancing pedestrian safety: issues and challenges
(2015)
The enhancement of pedestrian safety represents a major challenge in traffic accidents. This study allows a better understanding of the issues in pedestrian protection. It highlights the potential of in-depth studies in identifying relevant crash parameters interfering in the pedestrian safety. A computational simulation tool was developed to reconstruct pedestrian real-world crashes. A sample of 100 in-depth accident cases was reconstructed from two sources: 40 crashes provided by IFSTTAR-LMA and 60 crashes from CASR. To exemplify the methodology, two accident cases from each database were illustrated. A description of the sample of crashes was presented including the travel and impact speed of the vehicle, the driver reaction, the pedestrian walking speed, the scene configuration with the eventual obstacles, etc. This detailed description is pointing to the major factors affecting the limits of pedestrian safety systems.
Analysis of pedestrian leg contacts and distribution of contact points across the vehicle front
(2015)
Determining the risk to pedestrians that are impacted by areas of the front bumper not currently regulated in type-approval testing requires an understanding of the target population and the injury risk posed by the edges of the bumper. National statistics show that approximately 10% of all accident casualties are pedestrians, with 20% to 30% of these pedestrian casualties being killed or seriously injured. However, the contact position across the front of the bumper is not recorded in national statistics and so in-depth accident databases (OTS, UK and GIDAS, Germany) were used to examine injury risk in greater detail. The results showed that some injury types and severities of injuries appear to peak around the bumper edges. Although there are sometimes inconsistencies in the data, generally there is no evidence to suggest that the edges of the bumper are less likely to be contacted or cause injury.
Assessment of the effectiveness of Intersection Assistance Systems at urban and rural accident sites
(2015)
An Intersection Collision Avoidance System is a promising safety system for accident avoidance or injury mitigation at junctions. However, there is still a lack of evidence of the effectiveness, due to the missing real accident data concerning Advanced Driver Assistance Systems. The objective of this study is the assessment of the effectiveness of an Intersection Collision Avoidance System based on real accidents. The method used is called virtual pre-crash simulation. Accidents at junctions were reconstructed by using the numerical simulation software PC-Crashâ„¢. This first simulation is called the baseline simulation. In a second step the vehicles of these accidents were equipped with an Intersection Collision Avoidance System and simulated again. The second simulation is called the system simulation. In the system simulation two different sensors and four different intervention strategies were used, based on a time-to-collision approach. The effectiveness of Intersection Collision Avoidance System has been evaluated by using an assessment function. On average 9% of the reviewed junction accidents could have been avoided within the system simulations. The other simulation results clearly showed a change in the principal direction of force, delta-v and reduction of the injury severity.
For the estimation of the benefit and effect of innovative Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) on the collision positions and by association on the accident severity, together with the economic benefit, it becomes necessary to simulate and evaluate a variety of virtual accidents with different start values (e.g. initial speed). Taken into account the effort necessary for a manual reconstruction, only an automated crash computation can be considered for this task. This paper explains the development of an automated crash computation based on GIDAS. The focus will be on the design of the virtual vehicle models, the method of the crash computation as well as exemplary applications of the automated crash computation. For the first time an automated crash computation of passenger car accidents has been realized. Using the automated crash computation different tasks within the field of vehicle safety can be elaborated. This includes, for example, the calculation of specific accident parameters (such as EES or delta-V) for various accident constellations and the estimation of the economic benefit of DAS using IRFs (Injury Risk Functions).
During the past five years, a Euro NCAP technical working group on pedestrian safety has been working on improving test and assessment procedures for enhanced passive pedestrian safety. After harmonizing the tools and procedures as much as possible with legislation, the work was mainly focused on the development of grid procedures for the pedestrian body regions head, upper leg with pelvis and lower leg with knee. Furthermore, the test parameters for the head and the upper leg were revised, a new lower legform impactor was introduced and the injury thresholds were adjusted or, where necessary, the injury criteria were changed. Finally, the assessment limits and colour scheme were refined, widening the range and adding two more colours in order to provide a more detailed description of the pedestrian safety performance. By abstaining from an assessment based on a worst point selection philosophy, the improved test point determination procedures that were introduced during the years 2013 and 2014 give a more homogeneous, high resolution picture of the pedestrian safety performance of the vehicle frontends. By using a uniform grid for each test zone approximately 200 test points, evenly distributed within each area, can now be assessed per vehicle. The introduction of the flexible pedestrian legform impactor in 2014 enables a more realistic injury prediction of the knee and the tibia using a biofidelic test tool. With the new upper legform test that has been launched in 2015 the assessment in that area is now focusing on the injured body region instead of the injury causing vehicle part and thus is aligned with the approach in the remaining body regions head and lower leg. At the same time, a monitoring test with the headform impactor against the bonnet leading edge is closing the possible gap between the test areas to identify injury causing vehicle parts that moved out of focus due to the introduction of the new upper legform test. The paper describes the new test and assessment procedures with their underlying philosophy and gives an outlook in terms of open issues, specifying the needs for further improvement in the future. In parallel to the work of the pedestrian subgroup, a Euro NCAP working group on heavy vehicles introduced a set of protocol changes in 2011 that were related to the assessment of M1 vehicles derived from commercial vehicles, with a gross vehicle weight between 2.5 and 3.5 tons and 8 or 9 seats. The paper also investigates the applicability of the new pedestrian test and assessment procedures to heavy vehicles.
Ruptures and dissections of the thoracic and abdominal aortic vessel caused by traffic accidents are rare but potentially life-threatening injuries. They can occur by blunt trauma via seat belt or dashboard injury. The study aimed at evaluating the overall mortality, morbidity, neurological disorders, and differences in operative procedures of open repair and stenting. It shows that, with a change and improvement in diagnostic tools and surgical approach, mortality and morbidity of blunt aortic injuries were significantly reduced. Still an immediate life-threatening injury early diagnosis via multiple-slice and scans and surgical repair with minimally invasive stents showed excellent short-time results for selected patients.
Event data recorders (EDRs) are a valuable tool for in-depth investigation of traffic accidents. EDRs are installed on the airbag control module (ACM) to record vehicle and occupant information before, during, and after a crash event. This study evaluates EDR characteristics and aims at better understanding EDR performance for the improvement of accident reconstruction with more reliable and accurate information regarding accidents. The analysis is based on six crash tests with corresponding EDR datasets.
This study aimed at comparing head Wrap Around Distance (WAD) of Vulnerable Road User (VRU) obtained from the German in-depth Accident Database (GIDAS), the China in-depth Accident Database (CIDAS) and the Japanese in-depth Accident Database (ITARDA micro). Cumulative distribution of WAD of pedestrian and cyclist were obtained for each database (AIS2+) showing that WAD of cyclists were larger than the ones of pedestrians. Comparing three regions, the 50%tile WAD of GIDAS was larger than that of both Asian accident databases. Using linear regression that might predict WAD of pedestrians and cyclists from Impact speed and VRU height, WADs were calculated to be 206cm/219cm (Pedestrian/Cyclist) for GIDAS, 170cm/192cm for CIDAS and 211cm/235cm for ITARDA. In addition, this study may be helpful for reconsideration of WAD measurement alignment between accident reconstruction and test procedures.
The current paper reports on the results of a pilot study aiming to investigate the effect of mobile telephone use on the driving performance of 5 amateur and 5 professional drivers. Their driving acuity was tested through a driving simulator. Analysis and interpretation of the results occurred comparing the drivers' driving performance while talking, reading messages and writing a message on the mobile phone (intervention time) with the drivers' driving performance engaged in no activity (control time). The variables affected by the mobile phone were the "steering", the "lane offset" and the "duration of lane offset". Moreover, the drivers involved in a car crash in the last five years appeared to differ from those who were not involved in a crash in both "lane offset" and "following distance". The results of this pilot study will inform the design of a large experimental study on 50 professional and 50 amateur drivers.
Within the COST Action TU1101 the working group WG 1 is dealing with acceptance criteria and problems in helmet use while bicycling concerning conspicuity, thermal stress, ventilation deficits and other potential confounding. To analyze the helmet usage practice of bicyclists in Europe a questionnaire was developed in the scope of working group 1 to collect relevant information by means of a field study. The questionnaire consists of some 66 questions covering the fields of personal data of the cyclist, riding und helmet usage habits, information concerning the helmet model and the sensation of the helmet, as well as information on previous bicycle accidents. A second complementary study is conducted to analyze if the use of a bicycle helmet influences the seating geometry and the posture of cyclists when riding a bicycle and if the if the helmet vertically limits the vision. For this purpose cyclists with and without helmets were photographed in real world situations and relevant geometrical values such as the decline of the torso, the head posture of the upper vertical vision limit due to the helmet were established from the photos. The interim results of the field studies which were conducted in Germany by the Hannover Medical School are presented in this study. Some 227 questionnaires were filled out, of which 67 participants had used a helmet and 42 of the 227 participants have had a bicycle accident before. For the analysis of the riding position and posture of the cyclist over 40 pictures of riders with a helmet and over 240 pictures of riders without a helmet were measured concerning the seating geometry to describe the influence of using a bicycle helmet. Some results in summary: From the riders interviewed with the questionnaire only 11% of the city bike riders and 12% of the mountain bike riders always used the helmet, while 38% of the racing bike riders and 88% of the e-bike-riders always used the helmet. The helmet use seems not to change the sensation of safety of cycling compared to the use of a car. The arguments for not wearing a helmet are mostly stated to be the short distance of a trip, high temperatures or carelessness and waste of time. The reasons for using a helmet are stated to be the feeling of safety and being used to using a helmet. Being a role model for others was also stated to be a reason for helmet use. Concerning the sensation of the helmet 9% of the riders reported problems with the field of vision when using a helmet, 57% saw the problem of sweating too much, and 10% reported headaches or other unpleasant symptoms like pressure on the forehead when using the helmet. The analysis of the seating posture from the pictures taken of cyclists revealed that older cyclists generally have a riding position where the handle bar is higher than the seat (0-° to 10-° incline from seat to handlebar), while younger riders had a higher variance (between -10-° decline and 20-° incline). Further, elderly riders and riders with helmets seem to have a more upright position of the upper body when cycling. The vertical vision limit due to the helmet is determined by the front rim of the helmet (mostly the sun shade). Typical values here range from 0-° (horizontal line from the eye to the sun shade) to 75-° upwards, in which elderly riders tend to have a slightly higher vertical vision limit possibly due to the helmet being worn more towards the face.
Enhanced protection of pedestrians and cyclists remains on the focus. Besides infrastructural and behavioral aspects it is necessary to exploit technical solutions placed on motorized vehicles. Accident research needs reliable data as well as national road accident statistics. Changing the view on seriously injured road users is one of the challenges which will substantially contribute to the optimization on future traffic safety. The missing accuracy in the definition of personal injury has a detrimental effect on making cost efficient road safety policy which is not only focused on fatal accidents. The European commission requested that, starting in 2015, all EU member states provide more detailed data on the injury status of road casualties, with special regard to the group of seriously injured. Conventional accident data will always be essential. But to obtain detailed data about driver behavior in real traffic situations further data sources are required. These could be EDR data, data from electronic control units, data from traffic surveys and traffic counting, naturalistic diving studies and field operational tests. Gaining insight into normal as well as critical driver behavior will enable accident researchers to deduct functions estimating the increase or decrease of accident risk associated with certain behaviors or vehicle functions. Also with view to the introduction of highly automated driving functions in the future such data is urgently needed. Computer simulation based tools to estimate the benefits of active safety systems are another step on the way towards the safety assessment of automated driving. It is now the duty of the scientific community to ask the right questions, to develop a methodology and to merge all these data sources into a common framework for the assessment of future traffic safety innovations.
Accidents between right turning trucks and straight riding cyclists often show massive consequences. Accident severity is much higher than in other accidents. The situation is critical especially due to the fact that, in spite of the six mirrors that are mandatory for ensuring a minimum field of sight for the truck drivers, cyclists in some situations cannot be seen or are not seen by the driver. Either the cyclist is overlooked or is in a blind spot area that results from the turning manoeuvre of the truck and its articulation if it is a truck trailer or truck semitrailer combination. At present driver assistance systems are discussed that can support the driver in the turning situation by giving a warning when cyclists are riding parallel to the truck just before or in the turning manoeuvre. Such systems would generally bear a high potential to avoid accidents of right turning trucks and cyclists no matter if they ride on the road or on a parallel bicycle path. However, performance requirements for such turning assist systems or even test procedures do not exist yet. This paper describes the development of a testing method and requirements for turning assist systems for trucks. The starting point of each development of test procedures is an analysis of accident data. A general study of accident figures determines the size of the problem. In-depth accident data is evaluated case by case in order to find out which are representative critical situations. These findings serve to determine characteristic parameters (e.g. boundary conditions, trajectories of truck and cyclist, speeds during the critical situation, impact points). Based on these parameters and technical feasibility by current sensor and actuator technology, representative test scenarios and pass/fail-criteria are defined. The outcome of the study is an overview of the accident situation between right turning trucks and straight driving cyclists in Germany as well as a corresponding test procedure for driver assistance systems that at this first stage will be informing or warning the driver. This test procedure is meant to be the basis for an international discussion on introducing turning assist systems in vehicle regulations.
The study aimed at estimating the impact of pedelecs (with an assumed higher speed than bicycles) on the traffic accident severity in Germany for different penetration rates. The analysis shows that in many real situations (68%) an electrical support of bicycles has no influence on the sequence of accident events. Taking into account a number of unreported "single bicycle accidents", the adoption of similar traffic behavior and similar age distribution, the authors determined a shift of 400 former slightly to seriously injured cyclists in Germany per year. Overall this would be an increase of approximately 2.3% in case of 10% of pedelec penetration with the pessimistic assumption of 10 km/h speed increase although first natural driving studies predict a much lower average speed increase of pedelecs. The hypothesis verbalized in the initial question whether a higher distribution of pedelecs will result in more severe accidents in Germany is not verified. The study shows that electrical support didn"t result in higher collision speed in general. In many accident situations, the speed of pedelecs has only a minor influence on the accident severity. Further research focusing on a possible change of driver behavior especially in new target groups (elderly people) will be needed.
SEEKING is looking for answers regarding electric powered bicycles and their relation to traffic safety issues. Does a cyclist need "E"? Is it as risky as riding a moped or are E-bikes creating conflicts with other cyclists? The project described herein, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Transport, has the aim of seeking answers to these hot topics. The SEEKING-team shows an in-depth investigation of vehicle dynamic sensing, together with subjective feedback of test riders to detect similarities and differences between conventional cycling and E-biking. Following an overview on the international status quo, measurement runs and their analyses are performed to find a set of preventative measures to make (E-)biking safer. A specific focus is the detection of curve handling, stopping and acceleration phases as well as conflict studies on course-based test rides and "real world" tests on cycling paths (naturalistic riding).
Although the annual traffic accident statistics published by the national police is available in public, the detailed traffic accident data has not been released in Korea. Recently the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport recognized the importance of in-depth accident data to enhance road traffic safety and initiated a research project to establish a collection of the detailed accident data. The main objective of the project is a feasibility study to establish KIDAS (Korea In-Depth Accident Study). Within this project, three university hospitals which are located in mid-size cities have been selected to collect accident data. Annually, more than 500 cases of accidents have been collected from the in-patient's interviews and diagnosis. Unlike GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), currently on-site investigation can"t be performed by the Korean police. The only available data is patient medical records, patient's description of accident circumstances and the damaged vehicle. Occasionally the police provide the accident investigation reports containing very brief information on accident causation and vehicle safety. In a first step, the concept of KIDAS is to adopt the format of iGLAD (Initiative for the Global Harmonization of Accident Data) for harmonization. Since the currently collected accident information is extremely limited compared with GIDAS, the other sources of data and calculations such as KNCAP vehicle data, pc-crash simulations, vehicle registration information, insurance company data are utilized to complete the iGLAD template. Results from KIDAS_iGLAD and the cases of assessment of active safety devices such as AEBS, ESC, and LDWS will be evaluated.
Many safety-relevant tasks in control or diagnostics require binary choices such as "conflict versus separation" in air traffic control, "normal versus pathological" when interpreting x-ray pictures, or "permitted versus forbidden" when inspecting airport security scans. Deciders often are uncertain, but nevertheless required to decide between two alternatives, that is, they have not only to decide upon an action, but also about the admissible level of uncertainty. If the accepted level of judgment certainty is not taken into account, the sequence of decisions does not capture the full picture of the underlying decision process. Differences in judgment certainty are relevant, because they reflect not only the adequacy of the human-machine interface that is evaluated, but also the differences in expertise of the decider and the requirements of the actual situation or task. Therefore, capturing both judgment certainty and discrimination performance is essential. A comparison of different human-machine-interfaces (for air traffic control) is used to illustrate a methodological approach, which allows for integrated analyses of decision processes based on receiver-operator-characteristics and practical guidelines for the evaluation of human-machine-interfaces for safety-relevant operation procedures are provided.
The paper gives an overview of the recent (mostly 2012) figures of killed bus/coach occupants (drivers and passengers) in 27 Member States of the European Union as reported by CARE. The Evolution of the figures of bus/coach occupants killed in road accidents urban, rural without motorway and on motorways from 1991 to 2010 in 15 Member States of the EU supplements this information. More detailed are the figures reported for Germany by the Federal Statistics. The paper displays long-term evaluations (1957 to 2012) for killed, seriously and slightly injured occupants in all kinds of buses/coaches. Midterm evaluations (1995 to 2012) of the figures of fatalities and casualties are displayed for different busses according to their identification of road using as coaches, urban buses, school buses, trolley buses and "other buses". To be able to compare the evolutions of the safety of vehicle occupants it is customary to use different risk indicators. Calculations and illustrations for three often used indicators with their development over time are given: fatalities, seriously injured and slightly injured per 100,000 vehicles registered, per 1 billion (109) vehicle-kilometres travelled and per 1 billion (109) person-kilometres. These indicators are shown for occupants of cars, goods vehicles and buses/coaches. For the period from 1957 until 2012 it is obvious, that for all three vehicle categories analysed there was a clear long-term trend towards more occupant safety in terms of casualties per vehicles registered and per vehicle mileage. This was most significant for car occupants but it can be seen for bus/coach occupants and goodsvehicle occupants as well. Figures of killed occupants and of casualties related to person-kilometres are calculated and displayed for the shorter period 1995 to 2012. Here it becomes obvious that the bus/coach is still the safest mode of transport for the occupants of road vehicles. Graphs for the casualty risk indices still show significantly higher risks for car occupants despite the corresponding curve moved sustainable downwards. It is remarkable, that the risks of being killed or injured for the occupants of urban buses is growing whereas the corresponding risk for the occupants of coaches in line traffic tends downwards. The article ends with a short comparison and discussion of the risk indicators which are actually published for the occupants (driver and passengers) of cars and the passengers of buses/coaches, railroads, trams and airplanes. The interpretation of such information depends on the perception and it seems that for a complete view not only one indicator should be used and the evolutions of the indicator values during longer periods (as displayed with examples in the paper) should also be taken into account.
In the paper it is investigated to what extend one can extrapolate the detailed accident database GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), with survey area Hanover and Dresden region, to accident behavior in other regions and countries within Europe and how such an extrapolation can be implemented and evaluated. Moreover, it is explored what extent of accident data for the target country is necessary for such an extrapolation and what can be done in situations with sparse and low accident information in a target region. It will be shown that a direct transfer of GIDAS injury outcomes to other regions does not lead to satisfactory results. But based on GIDAS and using statistical decision tree methods, an extrapolation methodology will be presented which allows for an adequate prediction of the distribution of injury severity in severe traffic accidents for European countries. The method consists essentially of a separation of accidents into well-described subgroups of accidents within which the accident severity distribution does not vary much over different regions. In contrast the distribution over the various subgroups of accidents typically is rather different between GIDAS and the target. For the separation into the subgroups meaningful accident parameters (like accident type, traffic environment, type of road etc.) have been selected. The developed methodology is applied to GIDAS data for the years 1999-2012 and is evaluated with police accident data for Sweden (2002 to 2012) and the United Kingdom (2004 to 2010). It is obtained that the extrapolation proposal has good to very good predictive power in the category of severe traffic accidents. Moreover, it is shown that iterative proportional fitting enables the developed extrapolation method to lead to a satisfactory extrapolation of accident outcomes even to target regions with sparse accident information. As an important potential application of the developed methodology the a priori extrapolation of effects of (future) safety systems, the operation of which can only be well assessed on the basis of very detailed GIDAS accident data, is presented. Based on the evaluation of the presented extrapolation method it will be shown that GIDAS very well represents severe accidents, i.e. accidents with at least one severely or fatally injured person involved, for other countries in Europe. The developed extrapolation method reaches its limits in cases for which only very little accident information is available for the target region.
Today's volumes of traffic require more and more responsibility from each individual road user in their interactions. Those who drive motor vehicles have the singular obligation to minimise the risk of accidents and hence the severity of injuries, particularly with a view to the most vulnerable road users such as motor bikes, bikes and pedestrians. Since responsible and pro-active driving depends first and foremost on the visual information relayed by our eyes and the visual channel this requires good command of the traffic and all-round visibility from our driver's seat. Granted that human error can never be fully excluded, improving visibility around the car is nevertheless an urgent priority. To do so, we need to rate visibility in the most realistic driving situations. Since the existing visibility metrics and methodology are not applicable to real-life driving situations, this study aimed at developing a new visibility rating methodology based on real-life accident scenarios. On the basis of the cases documented by the accident research project, this study analysed criteria indicative of diminishing visibility on the one hand and revealing some peculiarities in connection with the visibility issue on the other. Based on the above, the project set out to develop a rating methodology allowing to assess all-round visibility in various road situations taking into account both driver and road geometries. In this context, the assessment of visibility while turning a corner, crossing an intersection and joining traffic on a major road (priority through route) is of major importance. The first tests have shown that critical situations can be avoided by adapting the relevant geometries and technical solutions and that significant improvements of road safety can be derived therefrom.