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The European Union has set a target to reduce all road fatalities (over 40,000) with 50% in 2010. This target percentage remained unchanged with the introduction of the ten new member states within the EU as by May 1st, 2004. According to Eurostat, 34% of all fatalities in 1998 in the, then, fifteen states of the European Union were the result of single vehicle collisions. This represents over 14,000 lives lost each year of which many can likely be saved through better roadside infrastructure design. The challenge for road safety professionals is to find methods and design strategies that help to reduce these casualties. Procedures for full-scale vehicle crash testing of guard rails were first published in the US in 1962. Present European regulation is mainly based on these procedures and later developments. Since then the vehicle fleet has changed considerably. Due to the complexity of the actual safety problem the numerical simulation approach offers a good opportunity to evaluate the different parameters involved in road safety, such as infrastructure properties, vehicle type, vehicle occupants and injuries. The ideal situation would be that simulation tools are coupled or integrated and all involved effects would be related. At the moment this is not the case yet, but initiatives are taken and a new virtual era has started. This paper offers a method looking at two components that encompass the driving environment: the car and the guardrail. As part of the EC-funded project, RISER (Roadside Infrastructure for Safer European Roads) a multi body simulation program study is carried out to determine sensitivities of some parameters in car to guardrail collisions and gives insides in performance of the car with passive safety equipment, the guardrail and the interaction of these objects with each other. By offering a set of methods that includes these two aspects and their intertwining relations, more confidence can be gained in actually reducing fatalities due to single vehicle collisions with, or due to, roadside furniture. Reducing the number of fatalities of single vehicle crashes would contribute greatly to the stated goal of reducing casualties altogether.
In recent years special attention has been paid to reducing the number of fatalities resulting from road traffic accidents. The ambitious target to cut in half the number of road users who are killed each year by 2010 compared with the 2001 figures, as set out in the European White Paper "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide" implies a general approach covering all kinds of road users. Much has been achieved, e.g. in relation to the safety of car passengers and pedestrians but PTW accidents still represent a significant proportion of fatal road accidents. More than 6,000 motorcyclists die annually on European roads which amounts to 16% of the EU-15 road fatalities. The European Commission therefore launched in 2004 a Sub- Project dealing with motorcycle accidents within an Integrated Project called APROSYS (Advanced PROtection SYStems) forming part of the 6th Framework Programme. In a first step, the combined national statistical data collections of Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain were analysed. Amongst other things parameters like accident location, road conditions, road alignment and injury severity have been explored. The main focus of the analysis was on serious and fatal motorcycle accidents and the results showed similar trends in all four countries. From these results 7 accident scenarios were selected for further investigation via such in-depth databases as the DEKRA database, the GIDAS 2002 database, the COST 327 database and the Dutch element of the MAIDS database. Three tasks, namely the study of PTW collisions with passenger cars, PTW accidents involving road infrastructure features, and motorcyclist protective devices have been assessed and these will concentrate inter alia on accident causes, rider kinematics and injury patterns. A detailed literature review together with the findings of the in-depths database analysis is presented in the paper. Conclusions are drawn and the further stages of the project are highlighted.
Sowohl die Zahl der im Straßenverkehr Getöteten wie auch die der Schwerverletzten sind nach Angaben der amtlichen Statistiken in Deutschland seit Jahren rückläufig. Die Gruppe der Schwerverletzten ist allerdings sehr heterogen und umfasst alle Unfallopfer, die für mindestens 24 Stunden in einem Krankenhaus behandelt wurden. Die vorliegende Untersuchung versucht, mit Hilfe von Daten des Traumaregisters der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie (DGU) die Frage zu beantworten, ob auch bei den besonders schwer verletzten Verkehrsunfallopfern ein Rückgang der Zahlen zu beobachten ist. Dazu wurden "schwerstverletzte" Patienten definiert als solche, die im Injury Severity Score (ISS) mindestens 9 Punkte erreicht haben und zudem intensivmedizinisch behandelt werden mussten. Der Zeitraum der Untersuchung umfasst zehn Jahre von 1997 bis 2006, der für einige Fragestellungen zusätzlich in zwei je 5-jährige Phasen unterteilt wurde. Ab 2002 (Phase 2) ist auch eine separate Auswertung für Fahrrad- und Motorradfahrer möglich. Die erste Fragestellung richtete sich auf die Veränderung der Anzahl schwerstverletzter Verkehrsunfallopfer über die Zeit. Dafür wurden die Daten von über 11.000 Patienten aus 67 verschiedenen Kliniken betrachtet. Pro Klinik wurde ein Durchschnittswert für die Anzahl von Verkehrsunfallopfern bestimmt, der dann mit der tatsächlich beobachteten Zahl verglichen wurde. Im Ergebnis zeigte sich, dass die relativen Abweichungen vom Durchschnitt insgesamt nur etwa -±10% betragen und dass kein deutlicher Trend einer Abnahme oder Zunahme der Schwerstverletztenzahlen in den vergangenen 10 Jahren erkennbar ist. In der zweiten Fragestellung wurde untersucht, ob und wie stark ein Rückgang der Letalität zu einem Anstieg der Schwerstverletztenzahlen geführt haben könnte. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass in den letzten beiden Jahren deutlich weniger Patienten im Krankenhaus verstorben sind, als dies nach ihrer Prognose zu erwarten gewesen wäre. Dieser Rückgang der Letalitätsrate von absolut bis zu 5 (in 2006: Prognose 18% versus beobachtet 13%) trägt damit auch zu einer Zunahme bei der Zahl der Schwerstverletzten bei. Zur Abschätzung der Prognose wurde ein im Traumaregister entwickeltes und validiertes Scoresystem (RISC) eingesetzt. In der letzten Fragestellung sollte geklärt werden, ob sich das Verletzungsmuster bei den Schwerstverletzten in den vergangenen zehn Jahren und abhängig von der Art der Verkehrsteilnahme verändert hat. Insgesamt konnte gezeigt werden, dass der relative Anteil der Autofahrer rückläufig war, von 60% auf 50%. Bei den verletzten Körperregionen zeigt das Schädel-Hirn-Trauma den deutlichsten Rückgang von 69 % auf 60% insgesamt. Dieser Trend ist bei allen Verkehrsbeteiligten erkennbar. Lediglich Verletzungen der Wirbelsäule werden häufiger gesehen, was aber auch ein Effekt der verbesserten CT-Diagnostik sein kann, zum Beispiel beim Ganzkörper-CT. Je nach Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Verletzungsmuster. Verletzungen des Kopfes sind bei Radfahrern und Fußgängern dominierend (über 70%), während Motorradfahrer hier die günstigsten Raten zeigen (45%). Motorrad- und Autofahrer haben die höchsten Raten für Verletzungen des Brustkorbs und im Bauchraum, bedingt durch die im Mittel höheren einwirkenden Kräfte auf den Körper. Insgesamt lassen sich die Daten des DGU-Traumaregisters gut nutzen, um typische Verletzungsmuster zu beschreiben und um relative Veränderungen bei der Zahl der Schwerstverletzten über die Zeit nachzuweisen. Beobachtungszeiträume von zehn Jahren und mehr, wie im vorliegenden Fall, ermöglichen auch aktuelle Trendaussagen. Epidemiologische Aussagen wie in den amtlichen Statistiken sind aber nur sehr eingeschränkt möglich, da das Traumaregister bisher nur auf freiwilliger Basis Daten sammelt.
Abschätzung der Gesamtzahl Schwerstverletzter in Folge von Straßenverkehrsunfällen in Deutschland
(2010)
Die Zahlen der im Straßenverkehr Getöteten, Schwer- und Leichtverletzten werden in Deutschland seit Jahren in amtlichen Statistiken geführt. Über die Gruppe der besonders schwer betroffenen Patienten liegen jedoch nur vage Schätzungen vor. Auch werden unterschiedliche Kriterien zur Definition dieser so genannten Schwerstverletzten verwendet, die zumeist auf einer Beschreibung der Art und der Schwere der Verletzungen beruhen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit sollen mit Daten aus dem Trauma-Register der DGU sowohl die unterschiedlichen Definitionen dargestellt werden, als auch über verschiedene Methoden die Gesamtzahl dieser Personen in Deutschland geschätzt werden. Das TraumaRegister DGU (TR-DGU) ist eine freiwillige Dokumentation von Unfallopfern, die lebend eine Klinik erreichen, dort behandelt werden und intensivmedizinisch betreut werden müssen. Das Register besteht seit 1993 und erfasst derzeit etwa 6.000 Fälle pro Jahr aus über 100 Kliniken. Pro Patient werden ca. 100 Angaben einschließlich der Codierung seiner Verletzungen gemäß Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) erfasst. Dieser Codierung erlaubt die Berechnung des Injury Severity Score (ISS) und des New ISS (NISS). Zum Vergleich werden folgende Definitionen eines Schwerstverletzten betrachtet: Maximum AIS ≥ 3; Maximum AIS ≥ 4; ISS ≥ 9; ISS ≥ 16; NISS ≥ 16, Polytrauma sowie die Notwendigkeit der Intensivtherapie. Am Beispiel des Kriteriums "ISS ≥ 16" werden schließlich auf drei verschiedene Arten die Gesamtzahl Schwerstverletzter Verkehrsunfallopfer geschätzt: 1.) in fünf ausgewählten Regionen werden die Schwerstverletzten aus dem TR-DGU mit der Anzahl Schwerverletzter aus der amtlichen Statistik verglichen, um den Anteil der besonders schwer betroffenen Patienten zu bestimmen. 2.) Aus dem TR-DGU wird je nach Versorgungsstufe des Krankenhauses (lokales, regionales oder überregionales Zentrum) die durchschnittliche Anzahl Schwerstverletzter ermittelt und dann über die Anzahl solcher Kliniken in Deutschland hochgerechnet. 3.) Die Zahl der Schwerstverletzten wird aus der Zahl der Getöteten Verkehrsunfallopfer geschätzt. Dazu nutzt man das Verhältnis von in der Klinik verstorbenen zu überlebenden Schwerstverletzten aus dem TR-DGU. Mit Literaturangaben zum Anteil von präklinisch Verstorbenen wird dann auf der Basis der Anzahl der Getöteten aus der amtlichen Statistik die Gesamtzahl Schwerstverletzter geschätzt. Je nach Definition eines Schwerstverletzten konnten zwischen 9.213 und 17.425 Fälle aus dem TR-DGU der letzten 10 Jahre berücksichtigt werden. Von diesen Patienten sind zwischen 12,7% und 20,2% im Krankenhaus verstorben. Die Krankenhaus Liegedauer der Überlebenden liegt zwischen 30 und 35 Tagen. Nimmt man die Definition "ISS -³ 16" als Basis (n=13.467), so reduziert sich die Zahl Schwerstverletzter um 37%, wenn man stattdessen den Begriff des Polytraumas wählt; betrachtet man hingegen die Intensivpflichtigkeit als Kriterium so erhöht sich die Zahl um 22%. Der erste Schätzansatz kommt zum Ergebnis, dass etwa 8-10% der Schwerverletzten zu den besonders schwer Verletzten zählen. Für ganz Deutschland erhält man damit Schätzwerte zwischen 6.300 und 7.900 Fälle pro Jahr. Die zweite Methode ergab, dass die Krankenhäuser der drei unterschiedlichen Versorgungsstufen jeweils 30,2, 11,5 oder 3,3 Fälle pro Jahr behandeln. Bezogen auf die 874 deutschen Kliniken ergeben sich geschätzte Gesamtzahlen von 6.800 bis 10.400 Fälle. Die dritte Methode zeigt, dass pro Patient, der im Krankenhaus verstirbt, 6,3 Schwerstverletzte überleben. Im Krankenhaus versterben jedoch etwa nur 25% bis 40% der insgesamt Getöteten; der Großteil der Getöteten verstirbt unmittelbar an der Unfallstelle. Damit müssen noch 1,5 bis 3 Todesfälle hinzugerechnet werden, was schließlich zu einem Verhältnis von 6,3 Schwerstverletzten zu 2,5 bis 4 Todesfällen führt. Bei einer Gesamtzahl von 5.595 Getöteten (Mittelwert 2002-2008) ergeben sich so Gesamtzahlen von 8.800 bis 14.000 Schwerstverletzte pro Jahr. Die Ergebnisse der angewendeten Schätzmethoden variieren stark und lassen auf eine Gesamtzahl von etwa 10.000 schwerstverletzten Verkehrsunfallopfern pro Jahr in Deutschland schließen. Bei Anwendung der Definition Intensivtherapie ergeben sich sogar etwa 12.500 Fälle. Alle Schätzmethoden sind gewissen Unsicherheiten ausgesetzt, die wenn möglich in Variationsrechnungen berücksichtigt wurden. Eine deutlich verbesserte Schätzung dieser Zahl ist jedoch erst möglich, wenn in wenigen Jahren vollzählige Erfassungen aus den derzeit entstehenden regionalen TraumaNetzwerken der DGU im TraumaRegister vorliegen.
Annually within the European Union, there are over 50,000 road accident fatalities and 2 million other casualties, of which the majority are either the occupants of cars or other road users in collision with a car. The European Commission now has competency for vehicle-based injury countermeasures through the Whole Vehicle Type Approval system. As a result, the Commission has recognised that casualty reduction strategies must be based on a full understanding of the real-world need under European conditions and that the effectiveness of vehicle countermeasures must be properly evaluated. The PENDANT study commenced in January 2003 in order to explore the possibility of developing a co-ordinated set of targeted, in-depth crash data resources to support European Union vehicle and road safety policy. Three main work activity areas (Work Packages) commenced to provide these resources. This paper describes some of the outcomes of Work Package 2 (WP2, In-depth Crash Investigations and Data Analysis). In WP2, some 1,100 investigations of crashes involving injured car occupants were conducted in eight EU countries to a common protocol based on that developed in the STAIRS programme. This paper describes the purposes, methodology and results of WP2. It is expected that the results will be used as a co-ordinated system to inform European vehicle safety policy in a systematic, integrated manner. Furthermore, the results of the data analyses will be exploited further to provide new directions to develop injury countermeasures and regulations.
The paper aims to study the injury risk and kinematics of pedestrians involved in different passenger vehicle collisions. Furthermore, the difference of pedestrian kinematics in the accidents involved minivan and sedan was analyzed. The 18 sample cases of passenger car to pedestrian collisions were selected from the database of In-depth Investigation of Vehicle Accident in Changsha of China (IVAC),of which the 12 pedestrian accidents involved in a minivan impact for each case, and the 6 accidents in a sedan impact for each. The selected cases were reconstructed by using mathematical models of pedestrians and accident vehicles in a multi-body dynamic code MADYMO environment. The logistic regression models of the risks for pedestrian AIS 3+ injuries and fatalities were developed in terms of vehicle impact speed by analyzing the minivan-pedestrian and sedan-pedestrian accidents. The difference of pedestrian kinematics was identified by comparing the results from reconstructed pedestrian accidents between the minivans and sedans collisions. The result shows that there is a significant correlation among the impact speed and the severity of pedestrian injuries. The minivan poses greater risk to pedestrian than sedan at the same impact speed. The kinematics of pedestrian was greatly influenced by vehicle front shape.
The declining trend since 1991 in the number of killed people was broken in 2011 when overall 4 009 people died in traffic accidents in Germany. The question arises if there is a stagnating trend of fatalities in Germany in future? By breaking down the accidents with casualties towards a monthly view one can see a decreasing trend of fatalities in the warmer months especially since 2009. When comparing against winter months higher deviations are observed. In December 2011 an increase of 191 traffic deaths were registered (181 in 2010 compared to 372 in 2011). Further analyses of different accident influences were evaluated and their possibility of drastic change from one year to the other was determined. As seen weather- and environmental conditions are one of the major contributing factors and are one of the causes for the increased number of fatalities. To support the underlying assumption a model had been created to calculate the number of traffic deaths on a daily basis approach. As an input, road conditions projected through weather parameters and also different driving behaviors on weekdays or holidays were used. As a result, estimates of daily fatality with up to 75% precision can be achieved out of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 data. Further on it shows that weather and street conditions have a high influence on the overall resulting number of traffic accidents with casualties, and especially to the number of fatalities. Hence it is estimated that approximately 3 300 people were killed in traffic accidents in Germany in 2013 which would be again a reduction of another 13% compared to 2012. Therefore an answer to the question will be that the decreasing trend in traffic fatalities in Germany somehow is not broken when environmental conditions are included in national statistics. Their effects will become more visible in future accident statistics and it is estimated variances of 5% to 8% of the annual number of traffic fatalities in Germany will be seen.
Analysis of the accident scenario of powered two-wheelers on the basis of real-world accidents
(2013)
For the first time since 20 years the German national statistics of traffic accidents revealed an increasing number of fatalities and seriously injured persons in 2011. This negative development was especially caused by increasing numbers in all groups of vulnerable road users (VRU). Furthermore, the comparison of fatality reduction rates between several categories of road users shows that persons on motorcycles show the worst performance over years. Although every second fatality in German traffic accidents is still a car occupant, users of PTW make up more than 20% in the meantime. Assuming further improvements in the field of occupant protection this trend will continue. For that reason, a study on the basis of real-world accidents was conducted to describe the accident scenario involving motorcycles and to identify the reasons of the above-described fact. Approximately 1.800 motorcycle accidents out of GIDAS database were used for the analyses. The first part of the study deals with the question how representative the GIDAS database is for the German motorcycle accident scenario. Afterwards, detailed descriptive statistics on motorcycle accidents were presented considering numerous parameters about the accident scene, environmental influences, vehicle information, individual characteristics, interview data, injury severity and injury causation. One important point is the identification of the most frequent critical situations that are typical for motorcycle accidents. Furthermore, a special focus was on accident causation. Finally, conspicuous facts out of the analysis are emphasized. All in all, the study gives a comprehensive overview about the German motorcycle accident scenario. One the one hand, the use of weighted GIDAS data allows representative and robust statements on the basis of large case numbers; on the other hand highly detailed conclusions can be drawn. The results of the study help to understand the particularities of motorcycle accidents and provide approaches for further improvements in the field of PTW safety.
Causation patterns and data collection blind spots for fatal intersection accidents in Norway
(2010)
Norwegian fatal intersection accidents from the years 2005-2007 were analysed to identify any causation patterns among their underlying contributing factors, and also to evaluate whether the data collection and documentation procedures used by the Norwegian in-depth investigation teams produces the information necessary to perform causation pattern analysis. A total of 28 fatal accidents were analysed. Details on crash contributing factors for each driver in each crash were first coded using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM), and then aggregated based on whether the driver was going straight or turning. Analysis results indicate that turning drivers to a large extent are faced with perception difficulties and unexpected behaviour from the primary conflict vehicle, while at the same time trying to negotiate a demanding traffic situation. Drivers going straight on the other hand have less perception difficulties. Instead, their main problem is that they largely expect turning drivers to yield. When this assumption is violated, they are either slow to react or do not react at all. Contributing factors often pointed to in literature, e.g. high speed, drugs and/or alcohol and inadequate driver training, played a role in 12 of 28 accidents. While this confirms their prevalence, it also indicates that most drivers end up in these situations due to combinations of less auspicious contributing factors. In terms of data collection and documentation, information on blunt end factors (those more distant in time/space, yet important for the development of events) was more limited than information on sharp end factors (those close in time/space to the crash). A possible explanation is that analysts may view some blunt end factors as event circumstances rather than contributing factors in themselves, and therefore do not report them. There was also an asymmetry in terms of reported obstructions to view due to signposts and vegetation. While frequently reported as contributing for turning drivers, they were rarely reported as contributing for their counterparts in the same accidents. This probably reflects an involuntary focus of the analyst on identifying contributing factors for the driver legally held liable, while less attention is paid to the driver judged not at fault. Since who to blame often is irrelevant from a countermeasure development point of view, this underlying investigator mindset needs addressing to avoid future bias in crash investigation reports.
A total survey of road traffic accidents involving most severely injured, defined as sustaining a polytrauma or severe monotrauma (ISS > 15) or being killed, was conducted over 14 months in a large study region in Germany. Data on injuries, pre-clinical and clinical care, crash circumstances and vehicle damage were obtained both prospectively and retrospectively from trauma centers, dispatch centers, police and fire departments. 149 patients with a polytrauma and eight with a severe monotrauma were recorded altogether. 22 patients died in hospital. Another 76 victims had deceased at the accident scene. In 2008, 49 % of patients treated with life-threatening injuries were car or van occupants, 21 % motorcyclists, 18 % cyclists and 10 % pedestrians. Among fatalities at the scene, vehicle occupants constituted an even larger portion. The number of road users with life-threatening trauma in the region was extrapolated to the German situation. It suggests that 10 % among the "seriously injured" as defined in national accident statistics are surviving accident victims with a polytrauma or severe monotrauma.
While many medical studies have dealt with the incidence, nature and treatment of polytrauma the injury-causing accident mechanisms are rarely discussed in detail, mostly due to the lack of documentation of the technical aspects. The present prospective study was started in late 2007 and collects data from traffic accidents with most severely injured in six south- German counties and two larger cities for the duration of one year. It is aimed at identifying and documenting all polytrauma cases (ISS ≥ 16) caused by traffic accidents and their crash circumstances. The data collection is based on an interdisciplinary concept to include both the police, emergency dispatch centers, hospitals and fire departments in the region and is completely anonymous. Potentially relevant cases where an emergency physician was called to the scene of a traffic accident are provided by the dispatch center. All three hospitals in the region suited for the treatment of polytraumatised patients record injuries, major diagnostic and surgery data. Data and images from the accident scene are provided by the police and by fire departments. The latter provide information which is usually not available from the police, like deployed airbags, vehicle extrication measures and detailed views of car interiors. The main objective of the study is to determine the structure of road users who sustain a polytrauma, their crash opponents and the injury patterns found in relation to the collision configuration and the protection by seat belts, air bags and other devices. With detailed documentation of vehicle damage and extrication measures the study is also intended to support the development of injury predictors for pre-hospital treatment and provide field data regarding further improvement of technical rescue.
Motorcycle riders are one of the most vulnerable road users. Annually, on estimate 6000 people are killed in motorcycle accidents in the former 15 EU countries. The objective of this research was to investigate and analyze the main aspects and causes of this vulnerability and the accidents in general. For this aim around 70 accidents in The Netherlands were investigated in the framework of an international research program (MAIDS). Also a control group of motorcycles with riders was investigated so that exposure could be taken into account. An important result is that human failure is in 82% of the cases the main cause of the accident, in 52% this is due the other vehicle driver. Perception and decision failures are the most common failures. The most injuries are caused by the environment but they are typically only less severe (AIS1). Injuries caused by the car (front and side) are typically severe injuries (AIS4+). Previous convictions of the MC rider seem to be related to the chance to get involved in an accident. It was shown that the Dutch and the total MAIDS accident sample are comparable.
Die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) bringt zum Ende jeden Jahres eine Prognose der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen des noch laufenden Jahres heraus, um so über die Entwicklung der Verkehrssicherheit in Deutschland Bilanz ziehen zu können. Dabei wird das Unfallgeschehen nach dem Schweregrad der Konsequenzen, der Ortslage sowie Alter und Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung der Verunglückten in 27 Zeitreihen unterteilt. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt sind die Daten lediglich für die ersten acht oder neun Monate erhältlich. Um Bilanz zu ziehen, werden die Anzahlen der letzten drei oder vier Monate prognostiziert. Gesamtziel des hier beschriebenen Forschungsvorhabens ist die Optimierung der jährlichen Unfallprognosen durch Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen, bei denen die Vorhersagen aus dem Trend der vorliegenden Monate, und der Dynamik der vorhergehenden Jahre abgeleitet werden. Um dem Einfluss der Witterungsverhältnisse Rechnung zu tragen, werden dabei meteorologische Variablen in das Vorhersagemodell aufgenommen. Um die Modelle zu testen, werden die endgültigen Daten der letzten 15 Jahre jeweils aus den vorläufigen Daten der ersten Monate vorhergesagt und mit den tatsächlich beobachteten endgültigen Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen verglichen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Vorhersagen mithilfe der hier vorgestellten Modelle die Vorhersagen für 25 der 27 Reihen präziser werden. Lediglich zwei Reihen zeigen einen leichten Anstieg des Vorhersagefehlers. Beim Vergleich von Modellen mit und ohne meteorologischen Variablen zeigt sich, dass 23 der 27 Reihen besser vorhergesagt werden können, wenn man das Wetter berücksichtigt. Neben der verbesserten Vorhersage ermöglicht die Aufnahme der Wettervariablen auch eine Einschätzung, wie groß der Einfluss der Witterungsgegebenheiten auf das Unfallgeschehen ist. Es zeigt sich also, dass die Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen und die Berücksichtigung von meteorologischen Variablen zu einer deutlichen Verbesserung der Vorhersagegenauigkeit führen. Die Verbesserung der Vorhersagen durch die Aufnahme von Wettervariablen bestätigt nochmals den Einfluss der Witterungsumstände auf das Unfallgeschehen.
The significant demographic changes are predicted for the European future. The age group over 65 years is permanently increasing and over next 30 years every fourth person will belong to this group. This development will continue so far that by 2050 in many countries will double the percentage of the population aged 65 and more. Many studies analyze the new phenomena of the ageing (graying) society during the last decade. Mobility is integrated part of the life of every citizen, even more it means for the elderly people. The adequate mobility is the precondition for their active life and for their social communication that contribute to their health and functional capacity and their autonomy and independency. The active seniors demand less public support. The mobility of the older citizens is closely linked with health and societal problems and creates an important public challenge. On the other side the participation of seniors in transport due to their limited physical and mental possibilities means for them an increased risk to be injured or killed. The main mobility spaces are roads that can be used not only as a traveler in a vehicle (driver or passenger) but also as a pedestrian or cyclist or even as a motorcyclist. The road traffic is then an opportunity and danger in the same time. The accident analyzes show specific risk features of seniors that are different compared with other age groups. First of all the older road users (65 and more) are facing to the higher risk (number of killed divided by the population size) to be killed in a road accident compared with the group of younger road users (0 - 64). More significant difference can be observed when comparing the road user groups. The fatality percentage of the older pedestrians is 2,5 times higher compared with the group 25 " 64. Similar frequency show the cyclist fatalities. On the other side the vehicle passengers in the younger group have more or less two time higher percentage compared to seniors and in the group of motorcyclists even achieved in 2008 almost five times higher compared with the older group. The share of the old road users fatalities (around 19%) didn"t practically change during the last 10 years in the European average. But comparing the gender involvement (2006) there is an interesting difference " female fatalities make 30, 2%, male fatalities 15, 3% of all fatalities in their groups. The risk of the senior users is more connected with their physical and mental limits than with their risk behavior. According to the Czech statistics (2007) the vehicle drivers over 65 years cause only 3, 6% of all accidents. The solution of the problem is to minimize the risk and to create a safe environment for the elderly people using the roads. In order to achieve this goal a deep knowledge of risk and of accident circumstances, full understanding of the behavior of the seniors and their limitations and accommodating approach of the whole society is necessary. Road risk of the ageing society has to be considered as a part of the health and social policy. These can build a creditable basis for the implementation of the measures that secure safe moving of seniors on the roads.
The Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) accidents constitute one of the road safety targets in Europe. PTWs users' fatalities represent 15% of EU road fatalities, having increased the last few years, which is quite opposite than other road users casualties. To reduce PTW accidents is necessary to know which the accident causations are from different points of view (human factor, vehicle characteristics, environment, type of accident, situation, etc.). In TRACE project ("Traffic Accident Causation in Europe", under the European Commission 6th Framework Program, 2006-2008,) a specific task was focused on PTW users point of view, analyzing extensive databases to locate the main accident configurations (type of accident, severity, frequency), and an in-depth database to obtain the causation factors, the risk factors for each configuration founded in the extensive databases analysis and the variables associated to each causation factor in the PTW configurations.
A lack of representative European accident data to aid the development of safety policy, regulation and technological advancement is a major obstacle in the European Union. Data are needed to assess the performance of road and vehicle safety and is also needed to support the development of further actions by stakeholders. This short-paper describes the process of developing a data collection and analysis system designed to partly fill these gaps. A project team with members from 7 countries was set up to devise appropriate variable lists to collect fatal crash data under the following topic levels: accident, road environment, vehicle, and road user, using retrospective detailed police reports (n=1,300). The typical level of detail recorded was a minimum of 150 variables for each accident. The project will enable multidisciplinary information on the circumstances of fatal crashes to be interpreted to provide information on a range of causal factors and events surrounding the collisions.
NASS: the glass is half full
(2007)
The National Accident Sampling System (NASS) was born in the late 1970s. It was based on a substantial amount of experience and analysis of what was needed in the United States to understand the safety challenges of our highways. This work also showed how to collect high quality and useful crash data efficiently. Unfortunately, when Ronald Reagan - a President who believed in limited government - was elected, any hope of full funding for NASS was lost. The concept of 75 teams investigating about 18,000 serious crashes in detail annually was never realized. The system got up to 50 teams, then was cut to 36, and finally to 24 teams investigating fewer than a quarter of the originally anticipated number of crashes per year. Despite this, the NASS investigations provide a rich source of data, collected according to a sophisticated statistical sampling system to facilitate detailed national estimates of road casualties on our nation- highways and their causes. In addition, changes have been made in recent years to increase the number of more serious crashes of recent model vehicles to make the results more relevant to improving vehicle safety. A recent, detailed examination of hundreds of rollovers has provided considerable insight into rollover casualties and into what can be done to reduce them. Some of these results will be presented that show the value of the NASS system. Our experience with NASS and the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) suggests a number of improvements that could be made in the United States" crash data systems. It also provides justification for a doubling or tripling of our national expenditures on crash data collection.
The objective of the study is to measure the risk of pedestrian and bicyclist in urban traffic through an analysis of real-world accident data. The kinematics and injury mechanisms for both pedestrian and bicyclists are investigated to find the correlation of injury risks with injury related parameters. For this purpose, firstly 338 cases are selected as a sample from an IVAC accident database based on the In-depth Investigation of Vehicle Accident in Changsha of China. A statistic measurement of the fatality and serious injury risks with respect to impact speed was carried out by logistic regression analysis. Secondly, 12 pedestrian and 12 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction with MADYMO program. A comparative analysis was conducted based on the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the injury risk, head impact conditions and dynamic response of pedestrians and bicyclists. The results indicate that bicyclists suffered lower risks of severe injuries and fatalities compared with pedestrians. The risks of AIS 3+ injury and fatality are 50% for pedestrians at impact speeds of 53.2 km/h and 63.3 km/h, respectively, while that for bicyclists at 62.5 km/h and 71.1 km/h, respectively. The findings could have a contribution to get a better understanding of pedestrians" and bicyclists" exposures in urban traffic in China, and provide background knowledge to generate strategies for pedestrian protection.
In India, heavy truck crashes on national highways account for a number of fatalities. But due to lack of in-depth crash data, detailed analysis is not possible to determine injury mechanisms, and to identify infrastructure, vehicle and human factors affecting these crashes. Over the past two years, researchers in India have established a crash investigation network, with the co-operation of the police and hospitals, to conduct crash investigations and in-depth crash data collection on national highways in the state of Tamil Nadu. This pioneering effort has resulted in the development of a heavy truck crash investigation methodology, the outcome of which is scientific and reliable crash data that has been able to provide good insight into truck crashes and their causes. This paper explains the need for truck crash investigations, the methodology, conclusions of the data analyzed up to date, and the need to focus on truck driver working conditions.