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The project UR:BAN "Cognitive assistance (KA)" aims at developing future assistance systems providing improved performance in complex city traffic. New state-of-the-art panoramic sensor technologies now allow comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of the vehicle environment. In order to improve protection of vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists, a particular objective of UR:BAN is the evaluation and prediction of their behaviour and actions. The objective of subproject "WER" is development support by providing quantitative estimates of traffic collisions at the very start and predict potential in terms of optimized accident avoidance and reduction of injury severity. For this purpose an integrated computer simulation toolkit is being devised based on real world accidents (GIDAS as well as video documented accidents), allowing the prediction of potential effectiveness and future benefit of assistance systems in this accident scenario. Subsequently, this toolkit may be used for optimizing the design of implemented assistance systems for improved effectiveness.
The evaluation of the expected benefit of active safety systems or even ideas of future systems is challenging because this has to be done prospectively. Beside acceptance, the predicted real-world benefit of active safety systems is one of the most important and interesting measures. Therefore, appropriate methods should be used that meet the requirements concerning representativeness, robustness and accuracy. The paper presents the development of a methodology for the assessment of current and future vehicle safety systems. The variety of systems requires several tools and methods and thus, a common tool box was created. This toolbox consists of different levels, regarding different aspects like data sources, scenarios, representativeness, measures like pre-crash-simulations, automated crash computation, single-case-analyses or driving simulator studies. Finally, the benefit of the system(s) is calculated, e.g. by using injury risk functions; giving the number of avoided/mitigated accidents, the reduction of injured or killed persons or the decrease of economic costs.
Rear-end collisions are the most frequent same and opposite-direction crashes. Common causes include momentary inattention, inadequate speed or inadequate distance. While most rear-end collisions in urban traffic only result in vehicle damage or slight injuries, rear-end collisions outside built-up areas or on motorways usually cause fatal or serious injuries. Driver assistance systems that detect dangerous situations in the longitudinal vehicle direction are therefore an essential safety plus. In view of this, for ADAC, systems that alert drivers to dangerous situations and initiate autonomous braking complement ESC as one of the most important active safety features in modern vehicles. The aim of ADAC is to provide consumers with technical advice and competent information about the systems available on the market. Reliable comparative tests that are based on standardised test criteria may provide motorists with important information and help them make a buying decision. In addition, they raise consumer awareness of the systems and speed up their market penetration. The assessment must focus on as many aspects of effectiveness as possible and include not only autonomous braking but also collision warning and autonomous brake assist. The work of the ADAC accident research is the development of the testing scenarios with direct link to accident situations and the identification of useful test criteria for testing.
The main focus of the benefit estimation of advanced safety systems with a warning interface by simulation is on the driver. The driver is the only link between the algorithm of the safety system and the vehicle, which makes the setup of a driver model for such simulations very important. This paper describes an approach for the use of a statistical driver model in simulation. It also gives an outlook on further work on this topic. The build-up process of the model suffices with a distribution of reaction times and a distribution of reaction intensities. Both were combined in different scenarios for every driver. Each scenario has then a specific probability to occur. To use the statistical driver model, every accident scene has to be simulated with each driver scenario (combinations of reaction times and intensities). The results of the simulations are then combined regarding the probabilities to occur, which leads to an overall estimated benefit of the specific system. The model works with one or more equipped participants and delivers a range for the benefit of advanced safety systems with warning interfaces.
The sequence of accident events can be classified by three essential phases, the pre-crash-sequence, the crash-sequence and the post-crash-sequence. The level of reliability of the information in the GIDAS-database (German In Depth Accident Study) is provided predominantly on the passive side. The period to evaluate active safety systems begins already in the pre-crash-sequence. The assessment of the potential of sensor- or communication-based active safety systems can only be accomplished by a detailed analysis of the pre-crash-phase. Hence the necessity to analyze the early period of the accident event in detail arises. This is possible with the help of the digital sketches of the accident site and the simulation of the accident by a simulation method of the VUFO GmbH. After simulating the pre-crash scenario it is possible to generate additional and standardized data to describe the pre-crash-sequences of an accident in a very high detail. These data are documented in a second database called the GIDAS Pre-Crash-Matrix (PCM). The PCM contains various tables with all relevant data to reproduce the pre-crash-sequence of traffic accidents from the GIDAS database until 5 seconds before the first collision. This includes parameters to describe the environment data, participant data and motion or dynamic data. This paper explains the creation of the PCM, the simulation itself and the contents and structure of the PCM. With this information of the pre-crash-sequence for various accident scenarios an improved benefit estimation and development of active safety systems can be made possible.
The data situation for quantifying the proportion of accidents avoided by the introduction of active safety systems is incomplete, since there is generally no data available on the accidents avoided by the technology in question. In this paper, a split-register approach is suggested and compared with the classical case-control approach known from epidemiologic applications. Provided a set of assumptions hold, which can reasonably be made in such data situations, the split register approach allows inferences on the population accident risk. For both approaches the benefits of basing the analysis on the results of a logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors are outlined. The biasing effects of violating key assumptions are discussed and the split-register approach is demonstrated using the example of the active safety system ESP with data from the German in-depth accident study GIDAS.
The focus of the technical innovation in the automobile industry is currently changing to sensor based safety systems, which are operating in the pre-crash phase of an accident. To get more information about this pre-crash phase for real accidents a simulation of this phase using the GIDAS database is done. The basics for this simulation are geometrical information about the accident location and the exact accident data out of the GIDAS database. This aggregated information gives the possibility to simulate an exact motion for every accident participant, using MATLAB / SIMULINK, in the pre-crash phase. After the simulation the information about the geometrical positions, the velocities and maneuvers of the drivers to an individual TTC (time to collision) are available. With those results it is possible to develop new useful sensor geometries using pre-crash scatter plots or estimate the efficiency of implemented active safety systems in combination with sensor characteristics. This simulation can be done for every reconstructed accident included in the GIDAS database, so these results can represent a wide spread basis for the further development of active safety systems and sensor geometries and characteristics
The presentation deals with the simulation tool rateEFFECT which intends to answer the following questions: Which active safety systems should be developed to maximize safety benefit in real traffic accidents? What is the effectiveness of a specific active safety system in the real world? How many casualties could be avoided by such a system? It is shown that a lot of information is required to simulate existing accidents in order to estimate ADAS effects. This particularly includes numerical values for the pre-crash and in-crash phase. The database GIDAS provides a required minimum number of these parameters for a statistically significant sample.
PROSPECT (Proactive Safety for Pedestrians and Cyclists) is a collaborative research project involving most of the relevant partners from the automotive industry (including important active safety vehicle manufacturers and tier-1 suppliers) as well as academia and independent test labs, funded by the European Commission in the Horizon 2020 research program. PROSPECT's primary goal is the development of novel active safety functions, to be finally demonstrated to the public in three prototype vehicles. A sound benefit assessment of the prototype vehicle's functionality requires a broad testing methodology which goes beyond what has currently been used. Since PROSPECT functions are developed to prevent accidents in intersections, a key aspect of the test methodology is the reproduction of natural driving styles on the test track with driving robots. For this task, data from a real driving study with subjects in a suburb of Munich, Germany was used. Further data from Barcelona will be available soon. The data suggests that intersection crossing can be broken down into five phases, two phases with straight deceleration / acceleration, one phase with constant radius and speed turning, and two phases where the bend is imitated or ended. In these latter phases, drivers mostly combine lateral and longitudinal accelerations and drive what is called a clothoid, a curve with curvature proportional to distance travelled, in order to change lateral acceleration smoothly rather than abrupt. The data suggests that the main parameter of the clothoid, the ratio distance travelled to curvature, is mostly constant during the intersections. This parameter together with decelerations and speeds allows the generation of synthetic robot program files for a reproduction of natural driving styles using robots, allowing a much greater reproducibility than what is possible with human test drivers. First tests show that in principle it is possible to use the driving robots for vehicle control in that manner; a challenge currently is the control performance of the robot system in terms of speed control, but it is anticipated that this problem will be solved soon. Further elements of the PROSPECT test methodology are a standard intersection marking to be implemented on the test track which allows the efficient testing of all PROSPECT test cases, standard mobile and light obstruction elements for quick reproduction of obstructions of view, and a concept for tests in realistic surroundings. First tests using the PROSPECT test methodology will be conducted over the summer 2017, and final tests of the prototype vehicles developed within PROSPECT will be conducted in early 2018
Methods for analyzing the efficiency of primary safety measures based on real life accident data
(2009)
Primary safety measures are designed to help to avoid accidents or, if this is not possible, to stabilize respectively reduce the dynamics of the vehicle to such an extent that the secondary safety measures are able to act as good as possible. The efficiency of a primary safety measure is a criterion for the effectiveness, with which a system of primary safety succeeds in avoiding or mitigation the severity of accidents within its range of operation and in interactionwith driver and vehicle. Based on Daimler-´s philosophy of the "Real Life Safety" the reflection of the real world accidents in the systems range of operation is both starting point as well as benchmark for its optimization. This paper deals with the methodology to perform assessments of statistical representative efficiency of primary safety measures. To be able to carry out an investigation concerning the efficiency of a primary safety measure in a transparent and comparable way basic definitions and systematics were introduced. Based on these definitions different systematic methods for estimating efficiency were discussed and related to each other. The paper is completed by presenting an example for estimating the efficiency of actual "single" and "multi" connected primary safety systems.