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Injury probability functions for pedestrians and bicyclists based on real-world accident data
(2017)
The paper is focusing on the modelling of injury severity probabilities, often called as Injury Risk Functions (IRF). These are mathematical functions describing the probability for a defined population and for possible explanatory factors (variables) to sustain a certain injury severity. Injury risk functions are becoming more and more important as basis for the assessment of automotive safety systems. They contribute to the understanding of injury mechanisms, (prospective) evaluation of safety systems and definition of protection criteria or are used within regulation and/or consumer ratings. In all cases, knowledge about the correlation between mechanical behavior and injury severity is needed. IRFs are often based on biomechanical data. This paper is focusing on the derivation of injury probability models from real world accident data of the GIDAS database (German In-depth Accident Study). In contrast to most academic terms there is no explicit term definition or definition of creation processes existing for injury probability models based on empirical data. Different approaches are existing for such kind of models in the field of accident research. There is a need for harmonization in terms of the used methods and data as well as the handling with the existing challenges. These are preparation of the dataset, model assumptions, censored/unknown data, evaluation of model accuracy, definition of dependent and independent variable, and others. In the presented study, several empirical, statistical and phenomenological approaches were analyzed regarding their advantages and disadvantages and also their applicability. Furthermore, the identification of appropriate prediction parameters for the injury severity of pedestrians has been considered. Due to its main effect on injuries of pedestrians and bicyclists, the importance of the secondary impact has also been analyzed. Finally, the model accuracy, evaluated by several criteria, is the rating factor that gives the quality and reliability for application of the resulting models. After the investigation and evaluation of statistical approaches one method was chosen and appropriate prediction variables were examined. Finally, all findings were summarized and injury risk functions for pedestrians in real world accidents were created. Additionally, the paper gives instructions for the interpretation and usage of such functions. The presented results include IRFs for several injury severity levels and age groups. The presented models are based on a high amount of real world accidents and describe very well the injury severity probability of pedestrians and bicyclists in frontal collisions with current vehicles. The functions can serve as basis for the evaluation of effectiveness of systems like Pedestrian-AEB or Bicycle-AEB.
The incidence of side impacts was investigated from GIDAS data. Both vehicle-fixed object and vehicle-vehicle collisions were analysed as these are enclosed within the consumer testing program. Vehicle-fixed object collisions were stratified according to ESC availability. Results indicated that vehicles equipped with ESC rarely have pure-lateral impacts. An increase in oblique collisions was seen for the vehicles with ESC whereby most vehicle were driving in left curves. The analysis of vehicle-vehicle collisions developed injury risk curves were developed at the AIS3+ injury severity for the vehicle-vehicle side impacts. Results suggested that greatest injury risk occurred when a Pre Euro NCAP vehicle was struck by a Post Euro-NCAP vehicle. The remaining curves did not show different behaviour, indicating that stiffness increased have been equally combated. This was attributable to the few Post Euro-NCAP vehicles that had a deployed curtain airbag available in the sample. The integration of Euro NCAP testing has shown to improve vehicle crashworthiness for pole collisions, as those vehicles with ESC rarely incur lateral impacts.
Causation of traffic accidents with children from the perspective of all involved participants
(2017)
In the year 2014 about 2,800 children between zero and 14 years got injured due to traffic accidents in Austria. More than 50% were taking part in traffic as active road users like cyclists or pedestrians. Within this study 46 real world traffic accidents between vehicles and children as pedestrians were analysed. In 39 cases, car drivers hit the crossing children. In the other cases, the collision opponents were busses, trucks or motorcycles. Most of the children got hit while crossing a road at urban sites. By analysing the traffic accidents from the perspectives of all involved participants, vehicle drivers and injured children, it is possible to identify factors for each participant, which led to the accident and factors that contributed the accident. The main task is to find patterns in the behaviour of crash victims (children and driver) before the collision. One important fact is that in more than 50% of the analysed cases sight obstructions were an important contributing factor for both, the driver and the child. From drivers view situations in which the child moved unexpected into the driven road lane were often found. For the injured child, factors like: no attention to the road traffic or no sufficient traffic observation were found to be relevant. Further it- possible to sensitise children and adults to possible source of critical traffic situations according to the findings of this study.
The proportion of older road users is increasing because of demographic change (in the group 65+ from current 18% to about 24% by 2030). The mobility needs of people 65+ often differ from those of younger people. Seniors (65+) are already more involved in fatal accidents than younger road users. According to the age development, the senior share of road deaths in the EU of today is increasing nearly one-fifth to one-third. From the in-depth analysis of accidents generic simulation models were developed. Attention has been paid both to psycho-physical characteristics as well as on the social and physical environment and their specifics in conjunction with seniors. By simulating the defined scenarios and varying the defined relevant parameters, accident influencing factors were examined as a basis for avoidance. In addition, the parameters were varied to show the influence from the vehicle, the pedestrian and the infrastructure to avoid the accident or to characterize the conditions for which the accident is inevitable.