Berichte der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, Reihe F: Fahrzeugtechnik
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117
In 2016 the seventh ESAR conference (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was held in Hannover. ESAR is an international convention of experts, who analyze traffic accidents all over the world and discuss their results in this context, conducted at the Medizinische Hochschule Hannover every 2 years. It connected representatives of public authorities, engineers in automotive development and scientists and offers a forum with particular emphasis on In-Depth-Analyses of accident statistics and accident analyses. Special focus is placed on research on the basis of so-called "In-Depth-Accident-Investigations" [data collections at the sites of the accidents], which are characterized by extensive documentations of the sites of the accidents, of the vehicles as well as of the injuries, encompassing several scientific fields. ESAR aims at a multi-disciplinary compilation of scientific results and at discussing them on an international, scientific level. It is thus a scientific colloquium and a platform for exchanging information for all accident researchers. Experiences in accident prevention as well as in the complex field of accident reconstruction are stated and new research fields are added. Existing results of long-term research work in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan include different infrastructural correlations and give findings on population, vehicle population and driver characteristics, which offer a basis for recommendations to be derived and measures for increasing road safety.
102
In 2014 the sixth ESAR conference (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was held in Hannover. ESAR is an international convention of experts, who analyze traffic accidents all over the world and discuss their results in this context, conducted at the Medizinische Hochschule Hannover every 2 years. It connected representatives of public authorities, engineers in automotive development and scientists and offers a forum with particular emphasis on In-Depth-Analyses of accident statistics and accident analyses. Special focus is placed on research on the basis of so-called "In-Depth-Accident-Investigations" [data collections at the sites of the accidents], which are characterized by extensive documentations of the sites of the accidents, of the vehicles as well as of the injuries, encompassing several scientific fields. ESAR aims at a multi-disciplinary compilation of scientific results and at discussing them on an international, scientific level. It is thus a scientific colloquium and a platform for exchanging information for all accident researchers. Experiences in accident prevention as well as in the complex field of accident reconstruction are stated and new research fields are added. Existing results of long-term research work in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan include different infrastructural correlations and give findings on population, vehicle population and driver characteristics, which offer a basis for recommendations to be derived and measures for increasing road safety.
72
In September 2004 the first international symposium called ESAR (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was carried out at the University of Hannover (Germany). The idea for such international conference was to bring together experts from the fields of accident investigation teams worldwide to present their results for a common audience of people from government, industry and other universities. The first conference was a really sufficient one and followed by the second symposium also at the Hannover Medical School two years later in 2006. This two year rhythm was now continued with the third conference in Hannover again in 2008. It is planned to carry out ESAR every two years also in the future. ESAR is a scientific colloquium and can be seen as a platform for exchange of information on accident research issues based on methodologies of investigation, injury mechanisms and injury assessment, accident causation and other issues of statistical accident data analysis. Representatives from authorities as well as from medical and technical institutions come together to discuss new research issues and exchange experiences on accident prevention and the complex field of accident reconstruction. Special focus was given to the target the European Union set for itself in 2000 which stipulates that within 10 years the number of person killed in road traffic accidents must be cut in half. To reach this goal, optimized measures, comprehensive research and analysis are necessary. A key hurdle comes from the European Union extension to 27 member states, each featuring different levels of traffic safety standards and different accident scenarios. Existing results from long term research projects in Europe, the USA, Australia and Japan including analyses of infrastructure, population, vehicle fleet and driver behaviour offer an excellent basis for understanding and improving countermeasures and research support needs in underdeveloped countries. ESAR's goal is to bring together researchers from all parts of the world, who will report on their methods and recommendations to improve traffic safety based on "In-Depth-Investigations" of real world accidents. These In-depth-investigations of accidents require thorough documentation and an accident data analysis on multidisciplinary levels which must be carried out immediately after it occurs. ESAR presents scientists the opportunity to present their studies on a common basis of research level.
68
At the beginning of the year 2000 the European Commission set the goal to halve the number of road deaths till the year 2010. The main focus are passenger car and lorry traffic. A significant reduction of the accident data could be reached in these groups. The advancement of active vehicle safety systems is an important issue of the programme. The safety of the motorcycle traffic has been disregarded till now. Since 1991 the number of killed motorcycle riders per year has been constant. The number of killed passenger car occupants has been more than halved in the same period. This is why initiatives are caused for the increase of the motorcycle safety. A great safety potential is expected for the Antilock Brake System (ABS). ABS for motorcycles is considered from the economic view in this study. A cost-benefit analysis shall clarify whether the economic benefit of ABS for motorcycles is greater than the consumed resources. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis will determine the maximal justifiable consumption in resource for which ABS is worthwhile. After the sensitivity analysis is done a break-even analysis will determine the market price respectively the annual mileage from which on ABS is worthwhile on user level. For this the fair end consumer market price is calculated which the user is ready to pay. For the considered market prices the annual mileage is determined from which on ABS is worthwhile for the user. The considered time horizon for this analysis are the years 2015 and 2020. For each of these years the accident data is forecasted. At this, it is assumed that the frequency of having an accident per million registered motorcycles decreases based on the present trend. Thus, riding motorcycle gets safer. Hence, the accident data in the years 2015 and 2020 is lower than the accident data today. The cost-benefit analysis is done for each year for four scenarios. Two scenarios handle the market penetration. The first one is the trend scenario, the second one is the mandatory equipment from the year 2010 on. The other scenarios describe the effectiveness of ABS. The effectiveness rates are determined by a literature review. The only potential which can be considered due to the available data is the potential due to an avoiding of the downfall just before the real accident happens. According to this the number of accidents will decrease by 2.4 %. The number of fatalities will decrease by 12.1 %. The number of severe injuries decreases by 11.7 %. However, the number of slight injuries increases by 2.1 %. The mentioned effectiveness rates are valid for the scenarios with the high effectiveness. Even these figures underestimate the actual effectiveness because there are only considered the avoided accidents with downfall. The necessary consumption in resources depends on the produced volume. The more ABS systems are produced, the lower are the costs per system. This is due to realised effects of scale and effects out of learning curves. The system costs depend on the penetration rate. In the trend scenario the system costs for ABS are 120 Euro for the year 2015 respectively 105 Euro for the year 2020. In the mandatory scenario the system costs are 115 Euro for the year 2015 respectively 100 Euro for the year 2020. The benefit-cost ratios are all over the critical barrier of 1.0. Thus, ABS is worthwhile on economic level. In the scenarios with high effectiveness the benefit-cost ratios range between 4.6 and 4.9. Thus, the values are even above the barrier of 3.0. The result of the break-even analysis is that ABS is worthwhile on user level. The considered market prices are 400 Euro in 2015 and 300 Euro in 2020. They are clearly below the determined fair end consumer market prices. The fair end consumer price for the year 2015 is 701 Euro respectively 622 Euro for the year 2020. Thus, ABS is worthwhile for motorcycle riders with an annual mileage higher than 2,200 km (year 2015) respectively 1,900 km (year 2020). The annual mileage of a motorcycle rider is 3,900 km on average. Thus, ABS is worthwhile for most of the motorcycle riders. The mentioned results are valid for the high effectiveness scenarios.
61
The second ESAR Conference took place at the Medical University Hannover. This year conference presents the current state of affairs of relevant research activities in the field of in-depth investigations. The first conference on ESAR (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was established in 2004. It is planned to hold ESAR every two years. Hannover seems to be the right place for this conference concerning the fact that the first in-depth research team was found here in the year 1973 and comprehensive studies on accident analysis were spread out from here around the world continuously. This year conference topped all expectations in terms of the numbers of participants, in the variety of papers and the interdisciplinary of presenters from medical, psychological and engineering background. More than 100 delegates from all over the world, that means 13 different countries and from 4 different continents, came to Hannover, presented their results of accident investigation and discussed countermeasures for accident prevention and injury reduction. ESAR should be a platform for exchange of knowledge to find an optimized way for increase of traffic and vehicle safety by in-depth investigation and methodology. ESAR as international conference should be a platform for consideration of all nations round the world. This seems to be very important for the current situation, having high safety in the high industrial countries of Europe, US and Australia, but low safety and high injury risk in Asia and Africa.