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Many safety-relevant tasks in control or diagnostics require binary choices such as "conflict versus separation" in air traffic control, "normal versus pathological" when interpreting x-ray pictures, or "permitted versus forbidden" when inspecting airport security scans. Deciders often are uncertain, but nevertheless required to decide between two alternatives, that is, they have not only to decide upon an action, but also about the admissible level of uncertainty. If the accepted level of judgment certainty is not taken into account, the sequence of decisions does not capture the full picture of the underlying decision process. Differences in judgment certainty are relevant, because they reflect not only the adequacy of the human-machine interface that is evaluated, but also the differences in expertise of the decider and the requirements of the actual situation or task. Therefore, capturing both judgment certainty and discrimination performance is essential. A comparison of different human-machine-interfaces (for air traffic control) is used to illustrate a methodological approach, which allows for integrated analyses of decision processes based on receiver-operator-characteristics and practical guidelines for the evaluation of human-machine-interfaces for safety-relevant operation procedures are provided.
According to the German road traffic regulations children up to the age of 12 or a height below 150 cm have to use approved and appropriate child restraint systems (CRS). CRS must be approved according to UN-ECE Regulation No. 44. The regulation classifies CRS in 5 weight categories. The upper weight group is approved for children from 22 to 36 kg. However, studies show that already today many children weigh more than 36 kg although they have not reached a height of 150 cm. Therefore, no ECE R44 approved CRS is available for these overweight children. In conclusion, today's sizes and weights of children are no longer represented by the current version of the ECE R44. The heaviest used dummy (P10) weighs just 32.6 kg and has a height of 137.9 cm. Statistical data of German children show that already 5% of the children at a height of 137.9 cm have a weight above 45.3 kg. Regarding children at a height of 145 cm, the 95th percentile limit is at a weight of 53.3 kg. Based on these data 4 dummies with different heights and weights were defined and produced. Two of them are overweight. Up to now, there is no experience how current child restraint systems perform in a car crash if they are used by children with a weight above 36 kg and a height smaller than 150 cm. In the future, different child restraint systems will be tested with respect to the ECE R44 regulation using these overweight dummies.
This study updates previous IIHS studies comparing estimated delta Vs for crash tested vehicles to the distribution of estimated delta Vs in the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) Crashworthiness Data System (CDS). The delta V estimates for 232 frontal crash tests at 64.4km/h into a deformable barrier with 40 percent overlap are compared with estimates from frontal offset crashes in the 1997-2004 NASS database. All delta V estimates were based on SMASH, the delta V estimating program used by NASS since 1997. Results indicated that for all vehicles tested by IIHS, SMASH delta Vs were, on average, 32 percent lower than impact speeds and about 28 percent lower than the expected delta V. Almost 80 percent of all real-world frontal crashes resulting in AIS 3+ injuries and just over 60 percent of all fatal crashes occur at or below the average estimated delta V calculated for crash tested vehicles.
Research to inform policy is often challenged with how to genuinely use and implement research findings in decision-making and policy-planning. To begin with, the dialogue between researchers and decision-makers is essential to ensure profound understanding and legitimate interpretations of the results. Furthermore, the step to drawing practical conclusions and processing them into actions can only succeed if research findings are diffused to decision-making levels with influence on the matter, and mechanisms to knowledge transfer in the presence of a stable, favourable policy environment exist. Research investments into the topic of electromobility in Europe are substantial, and subtopics aiming to inform national policy-makers address a complex set of aspects from environmental and societal to technological and economic. This paper has a two-fold objective, the first of which is to present the results of scenarios to explore electromobility deployment in Finland, Germany and the European Union. The second is to discuss the challenges and solutions to bridge the gap from research findings towards decision-making and policy-planning, using the authors' electromobility scenario work as an example. The electromobility scenarios were built using the VECTOR21 model (Mock, 2010), and the rationale was to simulate vehicle sales and markets under different policy settings and calculate the most economical solution to fulfill regulation on COâ‚‚ emissions as set by the European Commission (2009). The model allows calculating the market diffusion of alternative powertrain technologies to the European market until 2030, taking into account different taxation schemes, incentives and other country-specific characteristics. The authors also present the cost-benefit-analysis of the modelling results to assess the different scenarios and to show variation between regions regarding profitability of alternative technological or political support and interventions. To proceed from research findings towards decision-making and policy-planning, the authors made observations relating to transfer of research knowledge and interpretation of their electromobility scenario results in national policy contexts. An evaluation of how the function of research to inform policy in this case succeeded is provided. In addition, the influence of expert opinions on the political decision-making process will be discussed through experiences from an expert questionnaire conducted to survey the importance of costs, time requirement, acceptance and other criteria of promotion measures of electromobility.
The road transport infrastructure is facing many challenges and the subsequent adaptation of the infrastructure is of utmost concern. These challenges are as follows: globalization, sustainability, technological and demographic change, an increase in goods transport and climate change. Various climate projections predict changing climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation and wind speed for Germany. This could have severe impacts on road transport infrastructure as well as road traffic itself. At the Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen), a strategy was developed to adapt roads and engineering structures to the impacts of climate change. The strategy "Anpassung der Straßenverkehrsinfrastruktur an den Klimawandel /Adaptation of road traffic infrastructure to climate change (AdSVIS)" currently comprises about 15 projects. Adaptation measures are to be developed for the identified risk areas and consequently their effectiveness has to be assessed.
Bone fracture patterns could be crucial in reconstructing the nature of loading, especially in the lower limb and upper limb kinematics in vehicle-pedestrian crashes. In addition, use of FE bone models can be a handy tool to predict vehicle impact velocity and the impact direction. The point of fracture initiation in bone loading has been predicted quite accurately earlier. A methodology that predicts bone crack initiation and its propagation pattern for the six known loading directions using a single material and failure model is presented.
Advancing active safety towards the protection of vulnerable road users: the PROSPECT project
(2017)
Accidents involving Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) are still a very significant issue for road safety. According to the World Health Organisation, pedestrian and cyclist deaths account for more than 25% of all road traffic deaths worldwide. Autonomous Emergency Braking Systems have the potential to improve safety for these VRU groups. The PROSPECT project (Proactive Safety for Pedestrians and Cyclists) aims to significantly improve the effectiveness of active VRU safety systems compared to those currently on the market by expanding the scope of scenarios addressed by the systems and improving the overall system performance. The project pursues an integrated approach: Newest available accident data combined with naturalistic observations and HMI guidelines represent key inputs for the system specifications, which form the basis for the system development. For system development, two main aspects are considered: advanced sensor processing with situation analysis, and intervention strategies including braking and steering. All these concepts are implemented in several vehicle prototypes. Special emphasis is put on balancing system performance in critical scenarios and avoiding undesired system activations. For system validation, testing in realistic scenarios will be done. Results will allow the performance assessment of the developed concepts and a cost-benefit analysis. The findings within the PROSPECT project will contribute to the generation of state -of-the-art knowledge, technical innovations, assessment methodologies and tools for advancing Advanced Driver Assistance Systems towards the protection of VRUs. The introduction of a new generation safety system in the market will enhance VRU road safety in 2020-2025, contributing to the "Vision Zero" objective of no fatalities or serious injuries in road traffic set out in the Transport White Paper. Furthermore, the test methodologies and tools developed within the project shall be considered for the New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP) future roadmaps, supporting the European Commission goal of halving the road toll in the 2011-2020 timeframe.
Risk-based approach for the protection of land transport infrastructure against extreme rainfall
(2016)
The aim of the research project "Risk based approach for the protection of transport infrastructure against extreme rainfall RAINEX" is the development of a practical methodology for the identification and assessment of both vulnerable as well as critical transport infrastructures towards extreme rainfall events consequences. The developed methodology is based on expert knowledge and includes qualitative and semi-quantitative analyses regarding the assessment of the vulnerability and criticality of relevant transport infrastructures. The process chain from the spatial rainfall to the concentrated runoff in the river channel was shown to assess the local hazard resulting in the local risk. The main result of the project is a practice-oriented and applicable methodology and a comprehensive and well-developed security handbook.
In order to improve the protection of children transported in cars, within the CHILD programme (GR3D-CT2002-00791) real world road accidents are thoroughly analysed and then reconstructed in laboratory. Prior to comparing injury severities of real victims to physical parameter values measured on the dummies, the quality of the reconstructions is evaluated by experts who use their experience based on the investigation of numerous and various accidents. This paper presents a new tool aiming at better evaluating and validating accident reconstructions. It is based on statistical evaluation of vehicle deformations which gives weighing factors for every part of the car body structure finally leading to a specific Reconstruction Quality Score (RQS indicator). Furthermore, the reliability of this score, depending on the number of measured points, can be established. This tool includes a function aiming at adjusting the speed for a further reconstruction and at defining the launching speed and the pulse shape for complementary sled tests. Finally, the functions of the RQS software and database are presented.
This study aimed to better understand nitrate transport in the soil system in a part of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, in Germany, and to aid in the development of groundwater protection plans. An advection-diffusion (AD) cell was used in a miscible displacement experiment setup to characterize nitrate transport in 12 different soil samples from the study area. The three nitrate sorption isotherms were tested to define the exact nitrate interaction with the soil matrix. Soils varied in their properties which in its turn explain the variations in nitrate transport rates. Soil texture and organic matter content showed to have the most important effect on nitrate recovery and retardation. The miscible displacement experiment indicated a decrease in retardation by increasing sand fraction, and an increase in retardation by increasing soil organic matter content. Soil samples with high sand fractions (up to 94 %) exhibited low nitrate sorption capacity of less than 10 %, while soils with high organic matter content showed higher sorption of about 30 %. Based on parameterization for nitrate transport equation, the pore water velocity for both sandy and loamy soils were significantly different (P < 0.001). Pore water velocity in sandy soil (about 4 x 10 high 3 m/s) was about 100 to 1000 larger than in loamy soils (8.7 x 10 high 5 m/s). On the other hand, the reduction in nitrate transport in soils associated with high organic matter was due to fine pore pathways clogged by fine organic colloids. It is expected that the existing micro-phobicity increased the nitrate recovery from 9 to 32 % resulting in maximum diffusion rates of about 3.5 x 10 high 5 m/s2 in sandy soils (sample number CS-04) and about 1.4 x 10 high 7 m/s2 in silt loam soils (sample number FS-02).