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Validation of human pedestrian models using laboratory data as well as accident reconstruction
(2007)
Human pedestrian models have been developed and improved continually. This paper shows the latest stage in development and validation of the multibody pedestrian model released with MADYMO. The biofidelity of the multibody pedestrian model has been verified using a range of full pedestrian-vehicle impact tests with a large range in body sizes (16 male, 2 female, standing height 160-192cm, weight 53.5-90kg). The simulation results were objectively correlated to experimental data. Overall, the model predicted the measured response well. In particular the head impact locations were accurately predicted, indicated by global correlation scores over 90%. The correlation score for the bumper forces and accelerations of various body parts was lower (47-64%), which was largely attributed to the limited information available on the vehicle contact characteristics (stiffness, damping, deformation). Also, the effects of the large range in published leg fracture tolerances on the predicted risk to leg fracture by the pedestrian model were evaluated and compared with experimental results. The validated mid-size male model was scaled to a range of body sizes, including children and a female. Typical applications for the pedestrian models are trend studies to evaluate vehicle front ends and accident reconstructions. Results obtained in several studies show that the pedestrian models match pedestrian throw distances and impact locations observed in real accidents. Larger sets of well documented cases can be used to further validate the models especially for specific populations as for instance children. In addition, these cases will be needed to evaluate the injury predictive capability of human models. Ongoing developments include a so-called facet pedestrian model with a more accurate geometry description and a more humanlike spine and neck and a full FE model allowing more detailed injury analysis.
This study is aimed to investigate the correlations of impact conditions and dynamic responses with the injuries and injury severity of child pedestrians by accident reconstruction. For this purpose, the pedestrian accident cases were selected from Sweden and Germany with detailed information about injuries, accident cars, and accident environment. The selected accident cases were reconstructed using mathematical models of pedestrian and passenger car. The pedestrian models were generated based on the height, weight, and age of the pedestrian involved in accidents. The car models were built up based on the corresponding accident car. The impact speeds in simulations were defined based on the reported data. The calculated physical quantities were analyzed to find the correlation with injury outcomes registered in the accident database. The reconstruction approaches are discussed in terms of data collection, estimating vehicle impact speeds, pedestrian moving speeds and initial posture, secondary ground impact, validity of the mathematical models, as well as impact biomechanics.
Automotive Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and TechnologyrnAbstract: The degrees of injury severity, as a rule injuries scaled by AIS of specific regions of the human body, investigated out of road traffic accidents correspond to the body-specific loading values, which are found out with the aid of experimental or mathematical simulation of crash tests with motor vehicles or with sled tests. The coherence between the injured human being on the one hand and the physical and the theoretical model respectively on the other hand is established by the risk function, which describes the probability of degrees of injury severity in dependence on the protection criteria. Due to the different physical characteristics in the simulation, e.g. accelerations, forces, compressions and their velocity, the compilation of these quantities, comparable to the MAIS, the maximal occurred single AIS obtained in accident analysis is much more difficult in the simulation than in the accident occurrence. Therefore it is obvious to normalize the loading values gained out of simulation and to summarise them to an entire value in a suitable manner, the safety index.rn
Pedestrian accidents are one of the major concerns related with road accidents around the world. Portugal has one of the highest rates of pedestrian fatalities in Europe. In this paper an overview conditions were the pedestrian accidents occurred in Portugal is presented. In the last years, a project related with the pedestrian accidents has run in Portugal for the period 2004-2006 where 603 people died, 2097 have been severely injured and about 17000 slightly injured. Within this project all the pedestrian accidents in this period have been analysed providing global information about a wide range of aspects, since location, driver and pedestrian characteristics, weather and road conditions, among others. In addition, 50 in-depth accidents have been investigated and the data collected according the Pendant methodology. For this in-depth methodology detailed information about the accident has been collected, including injuries, vehicle damage, road conditions and road user- behaviour and actions. An accident reconstruction has been carried for each case including the determination of the speeds and driver actions, and the analysis of the contributing factors for the accident. Depending of the accident complexity, different methodologies have been used to analyse these accident, from the classical analytical equations such as Simms and Woods, to the use of detailed computational pedestrian models as those included in the commercial software- PC-Crash-® or Madymo-®. Also one of the goals of our investigation is the development of multibody models and methodologies for the reconstruction of pedestrian accidents. Some of these tools integrated in the commercial software Cosmos Motion-® are presented. The advantages of the different approaches are compared and discussed for some of the accidents investigated. With these tools the impact speed can be determined from the projection distance with analytical tools or PC-Crash-®, but more complex tools should be used to determine speed from the injuries, what is especially important for fatal accidents. The influence of the vehicle geometry and stiffness characteristics is another aspect analysed, where the influence of the vehicle stiffness has been determined using a combined multibody-finite elements approach within the software Madymo-®.
The declining trend since 1991 in the number of killed people was broken in 2011 when overall 4 009 people died in traffic accidents in Germany. The question arises if there is a stagnating trend of fatalities in Germany in future? By breaking down the accidents with casualties towards a monthly view one can see a decreasing trend of fatalities in the warmer months especially since 2009. When comparing against winter months higher deviations are observed. In December 2011 an increase of 191 traffic deaths were registered (181 in 2010 compared to 372 in 2011). Further analyses of different accident influences were evaluated and their possibility of drastic change from one year to the other was determined. As seen weather- and environmental conditions are one of the major contributing factors and are one of the causes for the increased number of fatalities. To support the underlying assumption a model had been created to calculate the number of traffic deaths on a daily basis approach. As an input, road conditions projected through weather parameters and also different driving behaviors on weekdays or holidays were used. As a result, estimates of daily fatality with up to 75% precision can be achieved out of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 data. Further on it shows that weather and street conditions have a high influence on the overall resulting number of traffic accidents with casualties, and especially to the number of fatalities. Hence it is estimated that approximately 3 300 people were killed in traffic accidents in Germany in 2013 which would be again a reduction of another 13% compared to 2012. Therefore an answer to the question will be that the decreasing trend in traffic fatalities in Germany somehow is not broken when environmental conditions are included in national statistics. Their effects will become more visible in future accident statistics and it is estimated variances of 5% to 8% of the annual number of traffic fatalities in Germany will be seen.
The German highway network hast o face new challenges in the near future, e.g. increasing traffic density and loads, climate change effects and new quality requirements regarding sustainability. It is necessary to come up with foresighted concepts in the present to be prepared for these challenges. Therefore it is important to adapt and enhance innovative attempts, which take changing impacts into account. One goal of these efforts is the development of adaptive systems for the provision of information and a holistic evaluation in real time. The paper describes the recent research and developments on a system for information and holistic evaluation in real time, taking into account sensor networks, evaluation procedures and their implementation in existing maintenance and inspection strategies.
Injury probability functions for pedestrians and bicyclists based on real-world accident data
(2017)
The paper is focusing on the modelling of injury severity probabilities, often called as Injury Risk Functions (IRF). These are mathematical functions describing the probability for a defined population and for possible explanatory factors (variables) to sustain a certain injury severity. Injury risk functions are becoming more and more important as basis for the assessment of automotive safety systems. They contribute to the understanding of injury mechanisms, (prospective) evaluation of safety systems and definition of protection criteria or are used within regulation and/or consumer ratings. In all cases, knowledge about the correlation between mechanical behavior and injury severity is needed. IRFs are often based on biomechanical data. This paper is focusing on the derivation of injury probability models from real world accident data of the GIDAS database (German In-depth Accident Study). In contrast to most academic terms there is no explicit term definition or definition of creation processes existing for injury probability models based on empirical data. Different approaches are existing for such kind of models in the field of accident research. There is a need for harmonization in terms of the used methods and data as well as the handling with the existing challenges. These are preparation of the dataset, model assumptions, censored/unknown data, evaluation of model accuracy, definition of dependent and independent variable, and others. In the presented study, several empirical, statistical and phenomenological approaches were analyzed regarding their advantages and disadvantages and also their applicability. Furthermore, the identification of appropriate prediction parameters for the injury severity of pedestrians has been considered. Due to its main effect on injuries of pedestrians and bicyclists, the importance of the secondary impact has also been analyzed. Finally, the model accuracy, evaluated by several criteria, is the rating factor that gives the quality and reliability for application of the resulting models. After the investigation and evaluation of statistical approaches one method was chosen and appropriate prediction variables were examined. Finally, all findings were summarized and injury risk functions for pedestrians in real world accidents were created. Additionally, the paper gives instructions for the interpretation and usage of such functions. The presented results include IRFs for several injury severity levels and age groups. The presented models are based on a high amount of real world accidents and describe very well the injury severity probability of pedestrians and bicyclists in frontal collisions with current vehicles. The functions can serve as basis for the evaluation of effectiveness of systems like Pedestrian-AEB or Bicycle-AEB.
This paper provides an overview of the research work of the European Enhanced Vehicle-safety Committee (EEVC) in the field of crash compatibility between passenger cars. Since July 1997 the EC Commission is partly funding the research work of EEVC. The running period of this project will be two years. The progress of five working packages of this research project is presented: Literature review, Accident analysis, Structural survey of cars, Crash testing, and Mathematical modelling. According to the planned time schedule the progress of research work is different for the five working packages.
Estimation of the effects of new emission standards on motorcycle emissions by means of modeling
(2016)
Road traffic is, in addition to the energy sector and the industry, one main source of air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. Although most countries and manufacturers agreed to environmental regulations to reduce the pollutant emissions, particularly in urban areas with high traffic density, the impact of road traffic emissions on the environment and human health has been growing in importance steadily. Due to stricter emission standards and the binding use of emission-reducing systems (e.g. three-way catalyst) hydrocarbon emissions from passenger cars have been reduced significantly since the last two decades. Unlike to passenger cars the emissions standards of powered two-wheelers have not been adjusted since 2006 although their share of hydrocarbon emissions to the total amount of hydrocarbon emissions of road traffic is estimated to be disproportionately high. Due to the new regulation (EU) No. 168/2013 powered two-wheelers have to fulfill new emission standards from 2016 (Euro 4) and 2020 (Euro 5) onwards. Besides new limits for the tailpipe emissions the evaporative emissions are regulated separately for the first time, as they make up a high proportion to the total hydrocarbon emissions in this vehicle class. In this context, the calculation and forecast of road traffic emissions is an important tool to verify compliance of climate targets and to assess the reduction potential of emission-reducing systems. For that purpose the Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) uses the emission- and calculation tool TREMOD (Transport Emission Model) which provides baseline data and calculated results for pollutants in almost every differentiation e.g. vehicle category, traffic situation and road type. Moreover, estimations of future emission trends, stock information and mileage distribution can be made. The main objective is to illustrate the impact of the upcoming emission standards Euro 4 and Euro 5 on the operational hydrocarbon emissions of powered two-wheelers based on statistical estimations. The significant aspect is to generate scenarios to show the reduction potential of hydrocarbon emissions of powered two-wheelers, differentiated into motorcycles and small motorcycles, in relation to the total share of hydrocarbon emissions in this vehicle class and to the total hydrocarbon emissions from road traffic. As a part of their research, the authors can make initial statements about the possible effect of the new emission standards of regulation (EU) No. 168/2013 by means of modeling with TREMOD.
EEVC Working Group 15 (Compatibility Between Passenger Cars) has carried out research for several years thanks to collaborative project funded by the E.C. and also by exchanging results of projects funded by national programmes. The main collaborative activity of the EEVC WG15 for the last four years was a research project partly funded by the European Commission, where the group made the first attempt to investigate compatibility between passenger cars in a comprehensive research program. Accident, crash test, and mathematical modelling data were analysed. The main result was that structural incompatibilities were frequently found and identified as the main source of incompatibility problems but were not easy to quantify. Unfortunately as little vehicle information other than mass is recorded in most accident databases, most analyses have only been able to show the effect of mass or mass ratio. Common ideas to improve compatibility have been reached by this group and from discussion with other research groups. They will be investigated in the next phase, where research work will concentrate on the development of methods to assess compatibility of passenger cars. The main idea is that the prerequisite to improve crash compatibility between cars is to improve structural interaction. The most important issue is that improved compatibility must not compromise a vehicle- self protection. Test methods should lead to vehicles which show good structural interaction in car to car accidents. Test methods to prove good compatibility may be an adaptation of existing regulatory test procedures (offset deformable barrier test or full width test like in the USA) for frontal impact or may be new compatibility tests. Additional criteria, e.g. impact force distribution, and maximum vehicle deceleration or maximum vehicle impact force should result in compatible cars. Attempts will be made to estimate the benefit of a more compatible car fleet for the European Community.
The GIDAS-investigation team of Dresden (VUFO) has documented more than 11.500 accidents since 1999. The documentation of the accident includes beside vehicle-, injury- and environmental-data very detailed reconstruction data. Within this accident investigation the VUFO began to record the skid resistance of the accident site in 2009. The measurements are divided in macro- and microroughness (Sand depth method and Portable Skid Resistance Tester-SRT-by Munro-Stanley London-©). Both methods are used to determine the skid resistance for more than 1000 passenger cars. The aim of the present study is to find out a relationship between the measured skid resistance, the road conditions and the friction coefficient, which is used to calculate the maximum accelerations and decelerations during a reconstruction of an accident. Basic approach to convert the SRT-value into the friction coefficient is the calculation of the theoretical absorbed energy of the spring rubber system of the swinging arm of lever. This absorbed energy is used to get the friction coefficient by using the equations for the work of friction. To consider the road-behavior, in correlation to the friction coefficient, the results will be merged with existing literature. Last step for this study will be a comparison between actual used friction coefficients all over the GIDAS-database and the theoretical results. The study shows, if it is possible to use the SRT-Measurement for the estimation of a friction coefficient for the reconstruction of a traffic accident. As expected, the GIDAS-Database and the additional measurement of the roughness of the road directly on the spot are an enormous useful dataset.
The first stage of the work has been to collate information on bridge assessment from the participating countries. In the later stages, the aim is to provide guidelines that reflect the current best practices, a methodology that will allow for future development and sufficient flexibility to accommodate variations in national priorities as the process of harmonisation is pursued. The following tasks fall within the scope of the project: (1) a review of current procedures and standards used for bridge assessment in Europe; (2) the development of models for taking into account the bridge specific traffic conditions and material properties; (3) the use of reliability methods based on a probabilistic approach for bridge assessment including the use of measurements for updating the reliability of structural elements; and (4) the provision of recommendations for methods and procedures that can be adopted for the assessment module of the management framework highlighting where further development will be beneficial.
Females sustain Cervical Spine Distortion injury (CSD) more often than males. Most work dealing with the biomechanics background (e.g. injury mechanism/criteria) as well as the application in seat design/testing, focuses on the occupant model of an average male. Therefore the EU-Project ADSEAT (Adaptive Seat to Reduce Neck Injuries for Female and Male Occupants) is aimed at adding a female model for gender balanced research of CSD and improving seat design. An extensive literature review, searching for risk factors and injury criteria for males and females, was accompanied by the evaluation of different databases containing CSD cases. The database evaluations suggests that an anthropometry quite close to the 50%ile female anthropometry as known from crash test dummy design is appropriate. The results presented here form the basis for the future development of a computational female model and the improvement of seat design for better protection of both males and females in the frame of the ADSEAT-Project.
Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) systems for pedestrians have been predicted to offer substantial benefit. On this basis, consumer rating programmes, e.g. Euro NCAP, are developing rating schemes to encourage fitment of these systems. One of the questions that needs to be answered to do this fully, is to determine how the assessment of the speed reduction offered by the AEB is integrated with the current assessment of the passive safety for mitigation of pedestrian injury. Ideally, this should be done on a benefit related basis. The objective of this research was to develop a benefit based methodology for assessment of integrated pedestrian protection systems with pre-crash braking and passive safety components. A methodology has been developed which calculates the cost of pedestrian injury expected, assuming all pedestrians in the target population (i.e. pedestrians impacted by the front of a passenger car) are impacted by the car being assessed, taking into account the impact speed reduction offered by the car’s AEB (if fitted) and the passive safety protection offered by the car’s frontal structure. For rating purposes, this cost can be normalised by comparing it to the cost calculated for selected cars. The methodology uses the speed reductions measured in AEB tests to determine the speed at which each casualty in the target population will be impacted. The injury to each casualty is then calculated using the results from standard Euro NCAP pedestrian impactor tests and injury risk curves. This injury is converted into cost using ‘Harm’ type costs for the body regions tested. These costs are weighted and summed. Weighting factors were determined using accident data from Germany and GB and the results of a benefit analysis performed by the EU FP7 AsPeCSS project. This resulted in German and GB versions of the methodology. The methodology was used to assess cars with good, average and poor Euro NCAP pedestrian ratings, with and without a current AEB system fitted. It was found that the decrease in casualty injury cost achieved by fitting an AEB system was approximately equivalent to that achieved by increasing the passive safety rating from poor to average. Also, it was found that the assessment was influenced strongly by the level of head protection offered in the scuttle and windscreen area because this is where head impact occurs for a large proportion of casualties. The major limitation within the methodology is the assumption used implicitly during weighting. This is that the cost of casualty injuries to body areas, such as the thorax, not assessed by the headform and legform impactors, and other casualty injuries such as those caused by ground impact, are related linearly to the cost of casualty injuries assessed by the impactors. A methodology for assessment of integrated pedestrian protection systems was developed. This methodology is of interest to consumer rating programmes which wish to include assessment of these systems. It also raises the interesting issue if the head impact test area should be weighted to reflect better real-world benefit.
There is a need for detecting characteristics of pedestrian movement before car-pedestrian collisions to trigger a fully reversible pedestrian protection system. For this purpose, a pedestrian sensor system has been developed. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the sensor system, the in-depth knowledge of car-pedestrian impact scenarios is needed. This study aims at the evaluation of the sensor system. The accident data are selected from the STRADA database. The accident scenarios available in this database were evaluated and the knowledge of the most common scenarios was developed in terms of the pedestrian trajectory, the pedestrian speed, the car trajectory, the car velocity, etc. A mathematical model was then established to evaluate the sensor system with different detective angles. It was found that in order to detect all the pedestrians in the most common scenarios on time the sensor detective angle must be kept larger than 60 degrees.
Although many German monitoring sites report declines of NOx concentrations, NO2-concentrations actually stagnate or even increase quite often. Various analyses have identified the altered compositions of nitrogen oxides (NO2/NOx-ratio) emitted by motor vehicles (resulting in an increase of primary NO2-emissions) as well as the chemical environmental conditions (mainly ground level ozone) as the main causes. The chemical conversion of NO to NO2 is often parameterized in dispersion calculations of exhaust emissions. A widely applied conversion model is the so-called Romberg approach from 1996. However, the Romberg approach has to be re-evaluated to accommodate the above-mentioned conditions. This article presents an adjustment to the Romberg approach in accordance with the measured data from 2000 to 2006, taking into consideration substantially higher NO2/NOx-ratios especially for higher NOx-concentrations. Model calculations with OSPM (Operational Street Pollution Model) including its internal chemistry module are able to reproduce very well the trends in the measured annual NO2-concentrations over a 10 year period. The relevant parameters for variations between the years are the NOx-emissions, primary NO2-emissions, ozone concentrations, wind conditions, and background concentrations. A simplified chemistry model based on annual mean NOx- and NO2-concentrations, and background ozone concentrations, as well as primary NO2-emissions is presented as a better method than the updated Romberg approach. This model simulates the annual mean NO2-concentrations much more accurately than the conventional and the updated Romberg approaches.
In most of the existing highway capacity manuals, level of service (LOS) of freeway weaving segments and ramp junctions is traditionally defined by the speed, volume or density in critical areas of merge, diverge and weaving manoeuvres. In that traditional concept several capacity values of different critical areas (merge, diverge, weaving) as well as upstream and downstream basic freeway segments within the influence areas are evaluated separately. In this paper, a new model which considers the total segment of freeway merge, diverge, and weaving as an entire object is introduced. A combined volume-to-capacity ratio is used for defining the LOS of the total segment. According to the probability and queuing theory, the volume-to-capacity ratio of the whole segment can be considered as a combination of volume-to-capacity ratios in the different critical areas under consideration. The parameters of the new model can be calibrated with field data. Those parameters are functions of the number of lanes on the freeways, the number of lanes in the on-ramps or off-ramps, the length of the acceleration, deceleration, or weaving sections. Varying the model parameters the function can be fitted to the existing capacity models for different types of weaving segments or ramp junctions. With this model, the traffic quality (LOS) can be obtained directly as a function of the volumes on the freeway and on the on-ramp or off-ramp respectively. The new model has the following advantages: a) a uniform function for all types of freeway weaving segments and ramp junctions, b) traffic quality assessment for all critical areas under investigation in one step, and c) easy calibration. The new model will be incorporated into the new edition of the German Highway Capacity Manual (HBS 201X).