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Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.
Efficient and widely available transport infrastructure is one of the most important prerequisites for sustainable economic development to meet the demand for mobility. In this context, being able to manage traffic growth forecasts is of particular importance. In Germany, current forecasts indicate a 40% increase in rail and road transport in the country. However, about 60% of bridges (as measured by bridge area) on the national German highway system that are suitable for freight transport were built before 1985. In other transport sectors as well, aging infrastructure is one of the key challenges for the availability and the resilience of European transport infrastructure. Many bridges in the national German highway system are already at their load-bearing limit. Furthermore, required maintenance measures have not been adequately carried out in the past due to limited budgets, leading to overall bridge deterioration. Further challenges for owners and operators of transport infrastructure result from the effects of climate change, associated climate extremes, natural catastrophes, and possible criminal and terrorist threats. To ensure that future infrastructure challenges can be successfully addressed, strategies and solutions must be developed and implemented in a timely manner to enable holistic and sustainable life-cycle management. The concepts of Resilience Management as well as Resilience Engineering are essential building blocks in this process. Resilience is the ability to survive in the face of a complex, uncertain, and ever-changing future. It is a way of thinking about both short-term cycles and long-term trends. Using this concept, owners and operators can reduce the risk of disruption in the face of shocks and stresses. Resilience requires cyclical, proactive, and holistic risk management practices.
The aging structure as well as the considerable increase of heavy-traffic load on Germany's motorways and trunk roads encourages the use of innovative, sound and reliable methods for the structural assessment on network level as well as on project level. Essential elements for this are data, which allow a reliable assessment. For a holistic approach to structural pavement assessment performance orientated measurements will be necessary. In combination with functional parameters as well as write-down models, strategically motivated decision making processes will be useful combined with technically motivated decision processes. For the application at the network level, the available methods for performance orientated measurements are still challenging, as they are based either on testing drill-cores or on non traffic speed methods. In recent years significant innovation steps have been made to bring traffic speed bearing capacity measurements and methods for evaluating pavement structures on the road. The paper summarizes the actual assessment procedures in Germany as well as the ongoing work on the development and implementation of new methods and techniques.
Traditionally, traffic count statistics in Germany contain the so-called relevant hourly volume, which is defined as the 30th-highest hour of the year when listing the hourly volumes in descending order. When the first edition of the German Highway Capacity Manual (HBS) was prepared in 2001, the Federal Government decided that this 30th hour should be used as the basis for the level of service determination for all Federal freeways and trunk roads. While German freeways are quite well equipped with inductive loop detectors, there are much fewer counts on rural roads and almost no long-term data on urban roads. With the current redraft of the German HBS detailed advice will be given on how to estimate peak-hour demand (all vehicles and heavy vehicle portion), based on the n-th highest hour concept depending on the available traffic counts. As the HBS will be divided into three major parts: freeways, rural roads, and urban roads, three separate chapters for the peak-hour demand estimation will be provided. Whereas for freeways the task consists in finding the comparable site equipped with inductive loop detectors, for urban roads it is a matter of establishing which time periods of the year and weekdays are appropriate for manual short-term counts as estimation of the 30th hour of the year. For all kind of traffic devices the requirements on traffic demand models for level of service calculations are described.
At the end of each year, the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) publishes the road safety balance of the closing year. They describe the development of accident and casualty numbers disaggregated by road user types, age groups, type of road and the consequences of the accidents. However, at the time of publishing, these series are only available for the first eight or nine months of the year. To make the balance for the whole year, the last three or four months are forecasted. The objective of this study was to improve the accuracy of these forecasts through structural time-series models that include effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that, compared to the earlier heuristic approach, root mean squared errors are reduced by up to 55% and only two out of the 27 different data series yield a modest rise of prediction errors. With the exception of four data series, prediction accuracies also clearly improve incorporating meteorological data in the analysis. We conclude that our approach provides a valid alternative to provide input to policy makers in Germany.
Although cruise control (CC) is available for most cars, no studies have been found which examine how this automation system influences driving behaviour. However, a relatively large number of studies have examined adaptive cruise control (ACC) which compared to CC includes also a distance control. Besides positive effects with regard to a better compliance to speed limits, there are also indications of smaller distances to lead vehicles and slower responses in situations that require immediate braking. Similar effects can be expected for CC as this system takes over longitudinal control as well. To test this hypothesis, a simulator study was conducted at the German Aerospace Center. Twenty-two participants drove different routes (highway and motorway) under three different conditions (assisted by ACC, CC and manual driving without any system). Different driving scenarios were examined including a secondary task condition. On the one hand, both systems lead to lower maximum velocities and less speed limit violations. There was no indication that drivers shift more of their attention towards secondary tasks when driving with CC or ACC. However, there were delayed driver reactions in critical situations, e.g., in a narrow curve or a fog bank. These results give rise to some caution regarding the safety effects of these systems, especially if in the future their range of functionality (e.g., ACC Stop-and-Go) is further increased.
Effects of time pressure on left-turn decisions of elderly drivers in a fixed-base driving simulator
(2019)
In countries with right lane traffic left-turn maneuvers at intersections are known to be particularly critical for elderly drivers. It has been suggested that the implementation and use of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) might offer a solution to compensate for age-related weaknesses in driving-related skills. In the present paper an experiment is reported which explored the effects of time pressure on the performance of left-turn manoeuvers supported by an ADAS function (time gap assistant). The study was performed in a fixed-base driving simulator with 20 younger (22-37) and 21 elderly drivers (60-84) who were observed when negotiating left-turn manoeuvers on rural roads with and without the assistance function active. Subjects performed the task once under conditions of time pressure once without. Results indicate that both age groups used the assistance function to perform the left-turn manoeuvers with shorter time gaps. Under conditions of time pressure this effect was more pronounced, and the effects of time pressure were stronger for the elderly. However, there were only weak indications for a specific benefit of the assistance function for the elderly.