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Institut
In the paper it is investigated to what extend one can extrapolate the detailed accident database GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), with survey area Hanover and Dresden region, to accident behavior in other regions and countries within Europe and how such an extrapolation can be implemented and evaluated. Moreover, it is explored what extent of accident data for the target country is necessary for such an extrapolation and what can be done in situations with sparse and low accident information in a target region. It will be shown that a direct transfer of GIDAS injury outcomes to other regions does not lead to satisfactory results. But based on GIDAS and using statistical decision tree methods, an extrapolation methodology will be presented which allows for an adequate prediction of the distribution of injury severity in severe traffic accidents for European countries. The method consists essentially of a separation of accidents into well-described subgroups of accidents within which the accident severity distribution does not vary much over different regions. In contrast the distribution over the various subgroups of accidents typically is rather different between GIDAS and the target. For the separation into the subgroups meaningful accident parameters (like accident type, traffic environment, type of road etc.) have been selected. The developed methodology is applied to GIDAS data for the years 1999-2012 and is evaluated with police accident data for Sweden (2002 to 2012) and the United Kingdom (2004 to 2010). It is obtained that the extrapolation proposal has good to very good predictive power in the category of severe traffic accidents. Moreover, it is shown that iterative proportional fitting enables the developed extrapolation method to lead to a satisfactory extrapolation of accident outcomes even to target regions with sparse accident information. As an important potential application of the developed methodology the a priori extrapolation of effects of (future) safety systems, the operation of which can only be well assessed on the basis of very detailed GIDAS accident data, is presented. Based on the evaluation of the presented extrapolation method it will be shown that GIDAS very well represents severe accidents, i.e. accidents with at least one severely or fatally injured person involved, for other countries in Europe. The developed extrapolation method reaches its limits in cases for which only very little accident information is available for the target region.
A biofidelic flexible pedestrian legform impactor (FlexPLI) has been developed from the year 2000 onwards and evaluated by a technical evaluation group (Flex-TEG) of UN-ECE GRSP. A recently established UN-ECE GRSP Informal Group on GTR9 Phase 2 is aiming at introducing the FlexPLI within world-wide regulations on pedestrian safety (Phase 2 of GTR No. 9 as well as the new UN regulation 127 on pedestrian safety) as a test tool for the assessment of lower extremity injuries in lateral vehicle-to-pedestrian accidents. Besides, the FlexPLI has already been introduced within JNCAP and is on the Euro NCAP roadmap for 2014. Despite of the biofidelic properties in the knee and tibia sections, several open issues related to the FlexPLI, like the estimation of the cost benefit, the feasibility of vehicle compliance with the threshold values, the robustness of the impactor and of the test results, the comparability between prototype and production level and the finalization of certification corridors still needed to be solved. Furthermore, discussions with stakeholders about a harmonized lower legform to bumper test area are still going on. This paper describes several studies carried out by the Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) regarding the benefit due to the introduction of the FlexPLI within legislation for type approval, the robustness of test results, the establishment of new assembly certification corridors and a proposal for a harmonized legform to bumper test area. Furthermore, a report on vehicle tests that previously had been carried out with three prototype legforms and were now being repeated using legforms with serial production status, is given. Finally, the paper gives a status report on the ongoing simulation and testing activities with respect to the development and evaluation of an improved test procedure with upper body mass for assessing pedestrian femur injuries.