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Die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) bringt zum Ende jeden Jahres eine Prognose der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen des noch laufenden Jahres heraus, um so über die Entwicklung der Verkehrssicherheit in Deutschland Bilanz ziehen zu können. Dabei wird das Unfallgeschehen nach dem Schweregrad der Konsequenzen, der Ortslage sowie Alter und Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung der Verunglückten in 27 Zeitreihen unterteilt. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt sind die Daten lediglich für die ersten acht oder neun Monate erhältlich. Um Bilanz zu ziehen, werden die Anzahlen der letzten drei oder vier Monate prognostiziert. Gesamtziel des hier beschriebenen Forschungsvorhabens ist die Optimierung der jährlichen Unfallprognosen durch Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen, bei denen die Vorhersagen aus dem Trend der vorliegenden Monate, und der Dynamik der vorhergehenden Jahre abgeleitet werden. Um dem Einfluss der Witterungsverhältnisse Rechnung zu tragen, werden dabei meteorologische Variablen in das Vorhersagemodell aufgenommen. Um die Modelle zu testen, werden die endgültigen Daten der letzten 15 Jahre jeweils aus den vorläufigen Daten der ersten Monate vorhergesagt und mit den tatsächlich beobachteten endgültigen Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen verglichen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Vorhersagen mithilfe der hier vorgestellten Modelle die Vorhersagen für 25 der 27 Reihen präziser werden. Lediglich zwei Reihen zeigen einen leichten Anstieg des Vorhersagefehlers. Beim Vergleich von Modellen mit und ohne meteorologischen Variablen zeigt sich, dass 23 der 27 Reihen besser vorhergesagt werden können, wenn man das Wetter berücksichtigt. Neben der verbesserten Vorhersage ermöglicht die Aufnahme der Wettervariablen auch eine Einschätzung, wie groß der Einfluss der Witterungsgegebenheiten auf das Unfallgeschehen ist. Es zeigt sich also, dass die Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen und die Berücksichtigung von meteorologischen Variablen zu einer deutlichen Verbesserung der Vorhersagegenauigkeit führen. Die Verbesserung der Vorhersagen durch die Aufnahme von Wettervariablen bestätigt nochmals den Einfluss der Witterungsumstände auf das Unfallgeschehen.
Car occupants have a high level of mortality in road accidents, since passenger cars are the prevalent mode of transport. In 2013, car occupant fatalities accounted for 45% of all road accident fatalities in the EU. The objective of this research is the analysis of basic road safety parameters related to car occupants in the European countries over a period of 10 years (2004-2013), through the exploitation of the EU CARE database with disaggregate data on road accidents. Data from the EU Injury Database for the period 2005 - 2008 are used to identify injury patterns, and additional insight into accident causation for car occupants is offered through the use of in-depth accident data from the EC SafetyNet project Accident Causation System (SNACS). The results of the analysis allow for a better understanding of the car occupants' safety situation in Europe, thus providing useful support to decision makers working for the improvement of road safety level in Europe.
Recently, EuroNCAP updated the upper legform test protocols. The main objective of this study is to establish the upper legform test in KIDAS (Korean In-depth Accident Study) taking into account domestic pedestrian accident data as well as anthropometric data to protect elderly pedestrians whose average height and weight is much smaller and lighter than other age groups, especially compared to Europeans. Therefore 230 cases of pedestrian accidents from KIDAS were investigated to explore the injury severity of body regions as well as age related injury patterns. Injuries of all body regions were examined, with a special focus on injuries of abdomen and pelvic area. On the other hand, in order to explore Korea's pedestrian accident environment, national police data and KIDAS (Korean In-depth Accident Study) data were compared. The results should be taken into account in future analyses and possible improvements, such as regulations and KNCAP test protocols, of the pedestrian safety policy in Korea.
Interdisciplinary accident research and research projects of AARU Audi Accident Research Unit
(2017)
AARU (Audi Accident Research Unit) is an interdisciplinary research project of the University Hospital Regensburg in cooperation with AUDI AG. Specific objective is to comprehend the respective accident scenario and retrieve generally applicable findings as to technical, medical and psychological processes. In order to prevent traffic accidents and to alleviate vehicle accident consequences, postulates of general traffic safety, human-machine interaction, technical design and function of new vehicles and occupant as well as third party protection shall be inferred from these findings. Specifically, each accident with new Audi, Lamborghini and Ducati vehicles involved is analyzed interdisciplinary, discussed in a case meeting and anonymously documented with more than 2,000 parameters. The database is continually used for solving safety relevant issues. Parallel to accident analysis, research projects are performed in the fields medicine, psychology and engineering in order to gain comprehensive insight and identify potential additional areas of activity of accident research.
Die europäischen Länder, die ein Programm zur Erhöhung der Verkehrssicherheit eingeführt haben, weisen in der Regel einen gesteigerten Rückgang an Getöteten und Verletzten auf. Im Vordergrund dieser Programme stehen neben der Reduktion der Unfälle die Umsetzbarkeit, die Finanzierbarkeit, die politische und soziale Akzeptanz sowie die Kosteneffizienz. Im Anschluss an die Erörterung der Merkmale einer erfolgreichen Verkehrssicherheitsarbeit werden zunächst beispielhaft die Planziele der Programme in Finnland (im Jahr 2010 weniger als 250 Getötete) und in Österreich (Reduktion der Getöteten um 50 % und eine Verminderung der Unfälle mit Personenschaden um 20 % bis 2010) vorgestellt. Die bisherige Entwicklung der Unfallzahlen wird auf je einer Grafik veranschaulicht. Anschließend werden das Hauptziel der Europäischen Kommission, die Halbierung der Zahl der Verkehrstoten 2001 bis 2010, sowie die Entwicklung der Zahlen von 1990 bis 2005 beziehungsweise 2010 (Zielvorgabe) dargestellt. Eine weitere vergleichende Grafik gibt die Zahl der Verkehrstoten in den Jahren 1995 und 2004 in allen Ländern der Europäischen Union (EU) wieder. Schließlich werden noch verschiedene Bemühungen der World Health Organisation (WHO) erwähnt.
Verkehrsunfallopfer, die beim Unfall überrollt werden, erleiden fast immer tödliche Verletzungen. Im innerstädtischen Bereich ereignen sich diese Unfälle mehrheitlich im niedrigen Geschwindigkeitsbereich. Die Frage der Vermeidbarkeit des Unfalls wird daher sehr oft seitens der Ermittlungsbehörde an die Sachverständigen gestellt. Im Rahmen der Unfallrekonstruktion spielt der Reifenprofilabdruck am Leichnam eine wichtige Rolle. Er belegt nicht nur den Überrollungsvorgang selbst, sondern erlaubt auch die Identifikation der Überrollungsrichtung und -region, aber auch des in Frage kommenden Reifens. Bei der retrospektiven Analyse von 120 Überrollungsfällen in Berlin (Fußgänger, Radfahrer und Kraftradfahrer) aus den letzten 23 Jahren wurde untersucht, wie verlässlich dieses Merkmal ist, wie oft und wo man es findet und von welchen Faktoren seine Entstehung beeinflusst wird.
Road accidents are typically analyzed to address influences of human, vehicle, and environmental (primarily infrastructure) factors. A new methodology, based on a "Venn diagram" analysis, gives a broader perspective on the probable factors, and combinations of factors, contributing both to the occurrence of a crash and to sustaining injuries in that crash. The methodology was applied to 214 accidents on the Mumbai-Pune expressway. Factors contributing to accidents and injuries were addressed. The major human factors influencing accidents on this roadway were speeding (30%) and falling asleep (29%), while injuries were primarily due to lack of seat belt use (46%). The leading infrastructure factor for injuries was impact with a roadside manmade structure (28%), and the main vehicle factor for injuries was passenger compartment intrusion (73%). This methodology can help identify effective vehicle and infrastructure-related solutions for preventing accidents and mitigating injuries in India.
Ruptures and dissections of the thoracic and abdominal aortic vessel caused by traffic accidents are rare but potentially life-threatening injuries. They can occur by blunt trauma via seat belt or dashboard injury. The study aimed at evaluating the overall mortality, morbidity, neurological disorders, and differences in operative procedures of open repair and stenting. It shows that, with a change and improvement in diagnostic tools and surgical approach, mortality and morbidity of blunt aortic injuries were significantly reduced. Still an immediate life-threatening injury early diagnosis via multiple-slice and scans and surgical repair with minimally invasive stents showed excellent short-time results for selected patients.
In North America, frontal crash tests in both the regulatory environment and consumer-based safety rating schemes have historically been based on full-width and moderate-overlap (40%) vehicle to barrier impacts. The combination of improved seat-belt technologies, notably belt tensioning and load limiting systems, together with advanced airbags, has proven very effective in providing occupant protection in these crash modes. Recently, however, concern has been raised over the contribution of narrower frontal impacts, involving primarily the vehicle corners, to the incidence of fatality and serious injury as a result of the potential for increased occupant compartment intrusion and performance limitations of current restraint systems. Drawing on data documented in the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS)/ Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) for calendar years 1999 to 2012, the present study examines the characteristics of existing and proposed corner crash test configurations, and the nature of real-world collisions that approximate the test environments. In this analysis, particular emphasis is placed on crash pulse information extracted from vehicle-based event data recorders (EDR's).
Pedestrians represent about 20% of the overall fatalities in Europe- road traffic accidents. In this paper a methodology is proposed to understand why the numbers are so high, especially in the south of Europe and particularly in Portugal, . First a detailed statistical analysis using Ordinal Logistic Regression model (OLR) was applied to the gathered data from all Portuguese accidents with victims in the period 2010-2012. In a second stage accident reconstruction computational techniques using pedestrian biomechanical models are used to evaluate the accident conditions that lead to the injuries, such as the speed and the impact location. For biomechanical injury criterions, the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale), the HIC (Head Injury Criterion) and other injury criterions based on the resulting accelerations in the pedestrian's body are used. The statistical model reported that there were several predictors that significantly influenced the pedestrian injury severity in the event of a road accident, such as Pedestrian's age, Pedestrian's gender, Vehicle Design/Category or Driver's gender. The use of injury scales and biomechanical criterions in in-depth investigation of road accidents, such as AIS, can significantly improve the quality of the reconstruction process.
The declining trend since 1991 in the number of killed people was broken in 2011 when overall 4 009 people died in traffic accidents in Germany. The question arises if there is a stagnating trend of fatalities in Germany in future? By breaking down the accidents with casualties towards a monthly view one can see a decreasing trend of fatalities in the warmer months especially since 2009. When comparing against winter months higher deviations are observed. In December 2011 an increase of 191 traffic deaths were registered (181 in 2010 compared to 372 in 2011). Further analyses of different accident influences were evaluated and their possibility of drastic change from one year to the other was determined. As seen weather- and environmental conditions are one of the major contributing factors and are one of the causes for the increased number of fatalities. To support the underlying assumption a model had been created to calculate the number of traffic deaths on a daily basis approach. As an input, road conditions projected through weather parameters and also different driving behaviors on weekdays or holidays were used. As a result, estimates of daily fatality with up to 75% precision can be achieved out of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 data. Further on it shows that weather and street conditions have a high influence on the overall resulting number of traffic accidents with casualties, and especially to the number of fatalities. Hence it is estimated that approximately 3 300 people were killed in traffic accidents in Germany in 2013 which would be again a reduction of another 13% compared to 2012. Therefore an answer to the question will be that the decreasing trend in traffic fatalities in Germany somehow is not broken when environmental conditions are included in national statistics. Their effects will become more visible in future accident statistics and it is estimated variances of 5% to 8% of the annual number of traffic fatalities in Germany will be seen.
The paper gives an overview of the recent (mostly 2012) figures of killed bus/coach occupants (drivers and passengers) in 27 Member States of the European Union as reported by CARE. The Evolution of the figures of bus/coach occupants killed in road accidents urban, rural without motorway and on motorways from 1991 to 2010 in 15 Member States of the EU supplements this information. More detailed are the figures reported for Germany by the Federal Statistics. The paper displays long-term evaluations (1957 to 2012) for killed, seriously and slightly injured occupants in all kinds of buses/coaches. Midterm evaluations (1995 to 2012) of the figures of fatalities and casualties are displayed for different busses according to their identification of road using as coaches, urban buses, school buses, trolley buses and "other buses". To be able to compare the evolutions of the safety of vehicle occupants it is customary to use different risk indicators. Calculations and illustrations for three often used indicators with their development over time are given: fatalities, seriously injured and slightly injured per 100,000 vehicles registered, per 1 billion (109) vehicle-kilometres travelled and per 1 billion (109) person-kilometres. These indicators are shown for occupants of cars, goods vehicles and buses/coaches. For the period from 1957 until 2012 it is obvious, that for all three vehicle categories analysed there was a clear long-term trend towards more occupant safety in terms of casualties per vehicles registered and per vehicle mileage. This was most significant for car occupants but it can be seen for bus/coach occupants and goodsvehicle occupants as well. Figures of killed occupants and of casualties related to person-kilometres are calculated and displayed for the shorter period 1995 to 2012. Here it becomes obvious that the bus/coach is still the safest mode of transport for the occupants of road vehicles. Graphs for the casualty risk indices still show significantly higher risks for car occupants despite the corresponding curve moved sustainable downwards. It is remarkable, that the risks of being killed or injured for the occupants of urban buses is growing whereas the corresponding risk for the occupants of coaches in line traffic tends downwards. The article ends with a short comparison and discussion of the risk indicators which are actually published for the occupants (driver and passengers) of cars and the passengers of buses/coaches, railroads, trams and airplanes. The interpretation of such information depends on the perception and it seems that for a complete view not only one indicator should be used and the evolutions of the indicator values during longer periods (as displayed with examples in the paper) should also be taken into account.
Analysis of the accident scenario of powered two-wheelers on the basis of real-world accidents
(2013)
For the first time since 20 years the German national statistics of traffic accidents revealed an increasing number of fatalities and seriously injured persons in 2011. This negative development was especially caused by increasing numbers in all groups of vulnerable road users (VRU). Furthermore, the comparison of fatality reduction rates between several categories of road users shows that persons on motorcycles show the worst performance over years. Although every second fatality in German traffic accidents is still a car occupant, users of PTW make up more than 20% in the meantime. Assuming further improvements in the field of occupant protection this trend will continue. For that reason, a study on the basis of real-world accidents was conducted to describe the accident scenario involving motorcycles and to identify the reasons of the above-described fact. Approximately 1.800 motorcycle accidents out of GIDAS database were used for the analyses. The first part of the study deals with the question how representative the GIDAS database is for the German motorcycle accident scenario. Afterwards, detailed descriptive statistics on motorcycle accidents were presented considering numerous parameters about the accident scene, environmental influences, vehicle information, individual characteristics, interview data, injury severity and injury causation. One important point is the identification of the most frequent critical situations that are typical for motorcycle accidents. Furthermore, a special focus was on accident causation. Finally, conspicuous facts out of the analysis are emphasized. All in all, the study gives a comprehensive overview about the German motorcycle accident scenario. One the one hand, the use of weighted GIDAS data allows representative and robust statements on the basis of large case numbers; on the other hand highly detailed conclusions can be drawn. The results of the study help to understand the particularities of motorcycle accidents and provide approaches for further improvements in the field of PTW safety.
It is very important for Automotive OEMs to get feedback on their product performance on real roads for continuous improvement. Every OEM has a way of collecting this feedback for various performance parameters. Systematic accident research is a way to generate the information related to safety performance of the vehicle. In India, while there is a large amount of data related to the accidents, it is found this data is aimed at understanding the gross statistics and not directly useful for technology development. This paper explains learnings from a pilot study carried out in collaboration with an Emergency Medical Services provider on one of the expressways (motorways). This pilot study has resulted in development of working model that could now be scaled up at for wider application. The paper also presents some of the important observations based on the data collected.
Since 2008, the authors inspected fatal traffic accidents on the spot every year, with the cooperation of Toyota police station in Aichi pref. In the jurisdiction, numbers of fatal accidents were 18 in 2008, 12 in 2009, 14 accidents in 2010, and 16 in 2011. We here report the results of our analysis of information obtained by detailed inspection for those that occurred from 2008 to 2010. We focused on vehicle-to-pedestrian accidents, which accounted for about 45% of all accidents in 2008. Because many accidents occurred on residential roads not far from pedestrians" homes, it was revealed that the decrease of the collision speed by traffic calming such as humps and zone speed management, was highly effective. On the other hand, pedestrian detection technologies seemed to be also effective as a countermeasure on vehicle side. Every pedestrian position against a vehicle was clarified and TTC (Time to Collision) was calculated provisionally. Pedestrian accidents in intersections were also examined. Among the intersection pedestrian accidents within the jurisdiction, compared with the national average in Japan, the ratio of intersections without a signal and the ratio without a pedestrian crossing were high. According to the comparison of the Japanese traffic accident patterns between 2001 and 2008, pedestrian accidents during turning right and turning left did not decrease much. For elderly drivers, these accidents occurred very often. Finally, single vehicle accidents were analysed with the accident pattern analysis methods used above. There were high numbers of single vehicle accidents against object on single roads. Although fatal accidents against guardrails decreased, the numbers of fatal accidents against a utility pole and a sign pole were nearly constant. As for the impact with narrow width objects such as utility poles, the fatality rate was very high, and countermeasures of both road infrastructure and vehicles seem to be effective.
The paper aims to study the injury risk and kinematics of pedestrians involved in different passenger vehicle collisions. Furthermore, the difference of pedestrian kinematics in the accidents involved minivan and sedan was analyzed. The 18 sample cases of passenger car to pedestrian collisions were selected from the database of In-depth Investigation of Vehicle Accident in Changsha of China (IVAC),of which the 12 pedestrian accidents involved in a minivan impact for each case, and the 6 accidents in a sedan impact for each. The selected cases were reconstructed by using mathematical models of pedestrians and accident vehicles in a multi-body dynamic code MADYMO environment. The logistic regression models of the risks for pedestrian AIS 3+ injuries and fatalities were developed in terms of vehicle impact speed by analyzing the minivan-pedestrian and sedan-pedestrian accidents. The difference of pedestrian kinematics was identified by comparing the results from reconstructed pedestrian accidents between the minivans and sedans collisions. The result shows that there is a significant correlation among the impact speed and the severity of pedestrian injuries. The minivan poses greater risk to pedestrian than sedan at the same impact speed. The kinematics of pedestrian was greatly influenced by vehicle front shape.
This study analyses no.39 cases in which n.41 motorcyclists were fatally injured, or 36% of total motorcycle fatalities in Northern Ireland between 2004 and 2010 (n.114). There were n.17 cases (43.6%) where the actions of another vehicle driver caused the collision, in thirteen of these cases the motorcycles had their lights switched on. The remaining n.22 collisions (56.4%) were due to the actions of the motorcyclist. In the approach to the collision scene, there were n.13 cases (31.7%) in which the approach was a right hand bend and in n.8 (19.5%) cases, the approach was a left hand bend. In the remaining n.18 (43.9%) cases, the approach was a straight road. Of the n.17 (41.4%) motorcycles that slid after falling, n.10 (24.4%) fell onto their right side and the remaining n.7 (17.1%) fell onto their left side. The information from this study identifies primary and contributory causes of motorcycle collisions.
To date, the Trauma Registry (TraumaRegister DGU-® contains data of approximately 100.000 severely injured patients, 65% of which suffered from a road traffic crash. Thus, it is the world's largest data base for severely injured patients. The article describes the development of the registry and explains how it was rolled out over Germany using the established structure of the German Trauma Network (TraumaNetzwerk DGU-®). In addition, this article presents three typical use cases from the fields of quality management, policy making and system-wide interventions, clinical research and injury prevention. In conclusion, the TraumaRegister DGU-® is a well-established tool for various purposes related to the control and reduction of the burden of road injury. Its ongoing expansion to other countries will support the goal of international benchmarking of hospitals and trauma systems.
The objective of the study is to measure the risk of pedestrian and bicyclist in urban traffic through an analysis of real-world accident data. The kinematics and injury mechanisms for both pedestrian and bicyclists are investigated to find the correlation of injury risks with injury related parameters. For this purpose, firstly 338 cases are selected as a sample from an IVAC accident database based on the In-depth Investigation of Vehicle Accident in Changsha of China. A statistic measurement of the fatality and serious injury risks with respect to impact speed was carried out by logistic regression analysis. Secondly, 12 pedestrian and 12 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction with MADYMO program. A comparative analysis was conducted based on the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the injury risk, head impact conditions and dynamic response of pedestrians and bicyclists. The results indicate that bicyclists suffered lower risks of severe injuries and fatalities compared with pedestrians. The risks of AIS 3+ injury and fatality are 50% for pedestrians at impact speeds of 53.2 km/h and 63.3 km/h, respectively, while that for bicyclists at 62.5 km/h and 71.1 km/h, respectively. The findings could have a contribution to get a better understanding of pedestrians" and bicyclists" exposures in urban traffic in China, and provide background knowledge to generate strategies for pedestrian protection.