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The significant demographic changes are predicted for the European future. The age group over 65 years is permanently increasing and over next 30 years every fourth person will belong to this group. This development will continue so far that by 2050 in many countries will double the percentage of the population aged 65 and more. Many studies analyze the new phenomena of the ageing (graying) society during the last decade. Mobility is integrated part of the life of every citizen, even more it means for the elderly people. The adequate mobility is the precondition for their active life and for their social communication that contribute to their health and functional capacity and their autonomy and independency. The active seniors demand less public support. The mobility of the older citizens is closely linked with health and societal problems and creates an important public challenge. On the other side the participation of seniors in transport due to their limited physical and mental possibilities means for them an increased risk to be injured or killed. The main mobility spaces are roads that can be used not only as a traveler in a vehicle (driver or passenger) but also as a pedestrian or cyclist or even as a motorcyclist. The road traffic is then an opportunity and danger in the same time. The accident analyzes show specific risk features of seniors that are different compared with other age groups. First of all the older road users (65 and more) are facing to the higher risk (number of killed divided by the population size) to be killed in a road accident compared with the group of younger road users (0 - 64). More significant difference can be observed when comparing the road user groups. The fatality percentage of the older pedestrians is 2,5 times higher compared with the group 25 " 64. Similar frequency show the cyclist fatalities. On the other side the vehicle passengers in the younger group have more or less two time higher percentage compared to seniors and in the group of motorcyclists even achieved in 2008 almost five times higher compared with the older group. The share of the old road users fatalities (around 19%) didn"t practically change during the last 10 years in the European average. But comparing the gender involvement (2006) there is an interesting difference " female fatalities make 30, 2%, male fatalities 15, 3% of all fatalities in their groups. The risk of the senior users is more connected with their physical and mental limits than with their risk behavior. According to the Czech statistics (2007) the vehicle drivers over 65 years cause only 3, 6% of all accidents. The solution of the problem is to minimize the risk and to create a safe environment for the elderly people using the roads. In order to achieve this goal a deep knowledge of risk and of accident circumstances, full understanding of the behavior of the seniors and their limitations and accommodating approach of the whole society is necessary. Road risk of the ageing society has to be considered as a part of the health and social policy. These can build a creditable basis for the implementation of the measures that secure safe moving of seniors on the roads.
The objectives of this paper are the analysis of the accident risk of drivers brain pathologies (Mild Cognitive Impairment, Alzheimer- disease, and Parkinson- disease), and the investigation of the impact of driver distraction on the accident risk of patients with brain pathologies, through a driving simulator experiment. The three groups of patients are compared to a healthy group of similar demographics, with no brain pathology. In particular, 125 drivers of more than 55 years old (34 "controls"" and 91 "patients") went through a large driving simulator experimental process, in which incidents were scheduled to occur. They drove in rural and urban areas, in low and high traffic volumes and in three distraction conditions (undistracted driving, conversation with a passenger and conversation through a mobile phone). The statistical analyses indicated several interesting findings; brain pathologies affect significantly accident risk and distraction affects more the groups of patients than the control one.
The data situation for quantifying the proportion of accidents avoided by the introduction of active safety systems is incomplete, since there is generally no data available on the accidents avoided by the technology in question. In this paper, a split-register approach is suggested and compared with the classical case-control approach known from epidemiologic applications. Provided a set of assumptions hold, which can reasonably be made in such data situations, the split register approach allows inferences on the population accident risk. For both approaches the benefits of basing the analysis on the results of a logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors are outlined. The biasing effects of violating key assumptions are discussed and the split-register approach is demonstrated using the example of the active safety system ESP with data from the German in-depth accident study GIDAS.
To elucidate the risk of pedestrians, bicycle and motorbike users, data of two accident research units from 1999 to 2014 were analysed in regard to demographic data, collision details, preclinical and clinical data using SPSS. 14.295 injured vulnerable road users were included. 92 out of 3610 pedestrians ("P", 2.5%), 90 out of 8307 bicyclists ("B", 1.1%) and 115 out of 4094 motorcycle users ("M", 2.8%) were diagnosed with spinal fractures. Thoracic fractures were most frequent ahead of lumbar and cervical fractures. Car collisions were most frequent mechanism (68, 62 and 36%). MAIS was 3.8, 2.8 and 3.2 for P, B and A with ISS 32, 16 and 23. AIS-head was 2.2, 1.3 and 1.5). Vulnerable road users are at significant risk for spine fractures. These are often associated with severe additional injuries, e.g. the head and a very high overall trauma severity (polytrauma).
Over 3,814 young drivers died in European Countries in 2004. Based on the recent OECD study: "Young drivers: the road to safety" (OECD, 2006), this paper addresses the question of the factors contributing to this high risk, and it draws together the experiences of many countries in reducing this risk. The comparisons across countries show that young driver safety is related to the quality of the traffic system. Safe countries have also safe young drivers, demonstrating that raising general safety levels is beneficial for young novice drivers. The analysis of the developments over time reveals that young males in contrast to young females have not benefited enough from the latest safety measures, indicating the need for a better understanding of the nature of the young male driver accident proneness. Although, recent studies on brain development indicate that youngsters may not be sufficiently physiologically matured to handle complex and dangerous tasks such as car driving, crash patterns indicate that enhanced driving experience may have protective effects. The paper closes with a 9 point policy plan. The full OECD report (258 pages) can be downloaded for free from http://internationaltransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/06YoungDrivers.pdf.
Electronic Stability Program (ESP) aims to prevent the lateral instability of a vehicle. Linked to the braking and powertrain systems, it prevents the car from running wide on a corner or the rear from sliding out. It also helps the driver control his trajectory, without replacing him, in the case of loss of control where the driver is performing an emergency manoeuvrer (confused and exaggerated steering wheel actions). A new ESP function optimizes ESP action in curves with hard under steering (situations in which the front wheels lose grip and the vehicle slides towards the outside of the curve). A complementary feature prevents the wheels from spinning when pulling away and accelerating. The name given to the ESP system varies according to the vehicle manufacturer, but other terms include: active stability control (ASC), automotive stability management system (ASMS), dynamic stability control (DSC), vehicle dynamic control (VDC), vehicle stability control (VSC) or electronic stability Control (ESC). This paper proposes an evaluation of the effectiveness of ESP in terms of reduction of injur accidents in France. The method consists of 3 steps: - The identification, in the French National injury accident census (Gendarmerie Nationale only), of accident-involved cars for which the determination of whether or not the car was fitted with ESP is possible. A sample of 1 356 cars involved in injury accidents occurred in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 was then selected. But we had to restrict the analysis to only 588 Renault Lagunas. - The identification of accident situations for which we can determine whether or not ESP is pertinent (for example ESP is pertinent for loss of control accidents whilst it is not for cars pulling out of a junction). - The calculation, via a logistic regression, of the relative risk of being involved in an ESPpertinent accident for ESP equipped cars versus unequipped cars, divided by the relative risk of being involved in a non ESP-pertinent accident for ESP equipped cars versus unequipped cars. This relative risk is assumed to be the best estimator of ESP effectiveness. The arguments for such a method, effectiveness indicator and implicit hypothesis are presented and discussed in the paper. Based on a few assumptions, ESP is proved to be highly effective. Currently, the relative risk of being involved in an ESP pertinent accident for ESP-equipped cars is lower (-44%, although not statistically significant)rnthan for other cars.rn
In-depth accident investigation offers many advantages for the analysis and comprehension of crash mechanisms. IFSTTAR makes such investigations since 1992 without interruption. The corresponding database contains more than 1200 accident case studies. Currently, in-depth accident investigation is one of the best ways to determine the speed or cars involved in accidents. This paper first presents the methods used for accident investigation and for accident kinematic reconstruction. Then, in order to illustrate the interest and possible applications of such accident data, it shows some results from a recent study based on the IFSTTAR in-depth accident study programme (IDAS) and dealing with the link between travelling speed and accident risk.
Injury probability functions for pedestrians and bicyclists based on real-world accident data
(2017)
The paper is focusing on the modelling of injury severity probabilities, often called as Injury Risk Functions (IRF). These are mathematical functions describing the probability for a defined population and for possible explanatory factors (variables) to sustain a certain injury severity. Injury risk functions are becoming more and more important as basis for the assessment of automotive safety systems. They contribute to the understanding of injury mechanisms, (prospective) evaluation of safety systems and definition of protection criteria or are used within regulation and/or consumer ratings. In all cases, knowledge about the correlation between mechanical behavior and injury severity is needed. IRFs are often based on biomechanical data. This paper is focusing on the derivation of injury probability models from real world accident data of the GIDAS database (German In-depth Accident Study). In contrast to most academic terms there is no explicit term definition or definition of creation processes existing for injury probability models based on empirical data. Different approaches are existing for such kind of models in the field of accident research. There is a need for harmonization in terms of the used methods and data as well as the handling with the existing challenges. These are preparation of the dataset, model assumptions, censored/unknown data, evaluation of model accuracy, definition of dependent and independent variable, and others. In the presented study, several empirical, statistical and phenomenological approaches were analyzed regarding their advantages and disadvantages and also their applicability. Furthermore, the identification of appropriate prediction parameters for the injury severity of pedestrians has been considered. Due to its main effect on injuries of pedestrians and bicyclists, the importance of the secondary impact has also been analyzed. Finally, the model accuracy, evaluated by several criteria, is the rating factor that gives the quality and reliability for application of the resulting models. After the investigation and evaluation of statistical approaches one method was chosen and appropriate prediction variables were examined. Finally, all findings were summarized and injury risk functions for pedestrians in real world accidents were created. Additionally, the paper gives instructions for the interpretation and usage of such functions. The presented results include IRFs for several injury severity levels and age groups. The presented models are based on a high amount of real world accidents and describe very well the injury severity probability of pedestrians and bicyclists in frontal collisions with current vehicles. The functions can serve as basis for the evaluation of effectiveness of systems like Pedestrian-AEB or Bicycle-AEB.
M. SAUTHOFF berichtet über bestehende Refinanzierungsmöglichkeiten für Aufwendungen zum Bau und zur Unterhaltung öffentlicher Straßen. Unter Refinanzierung werden in diesem Beitrag Möglichkeiten der mittelbaren oder unmittelbaren Heranziehung privater Finanzierung der Wahrnehmung von Aufgaben der Straßenbaulast verstanden, also des Baues, des Ausbaus, der Verbesserung und der Unterhaltung öffentlicher Straßen. Zur Erarbeitung von Finanzierungsmodellen im Bereich des Straßenbaus ist eine gerechte Verteilung der zuvor zu definierenden Kosten auf die Betreffenden zu berücksichtigen, die von der jeweiligen Straßenbaumaßnahme einen Vorteil haben, etwaige Doppelbelastungen sind zu erkennen und zu vermeiden und Steuerungseffekte sind hinreichend zu prognostizieren. Der Autor geht auf die Begriffsbestimmungen des Regelungsbereiches ein, die Bedeutung für die Finanzierbarkeit von Straßenbauvorhaben einschließlich ihrer Planung und erläutert die verschiedenen möglichen Modelle zur Übertragung von Aufgaben auf Private (Betreibermodell, Konzessionsmodell, Betriebsführungsmodell). In 11 Thesen fasst der Autor seine Ausführungen zusammen. Das tradierte System der Finanzierung des Straßenbaus und der Straßenunterhaltung erscheint vor dem Hintergrund der Situation der öffentlichen Haushalte zunehmend als unzureichend. Eine Lösung wird in der Zusammenarbeit der Öffentlichen Hand mit Privaten gesehen, der so genannten öffentlichen privaten Partnerschaft (PPP), die seit den 90er Jahren in neuen Formen praktiziert und intensiviert wird. Lag der Schwerpunkt anfangs noch vornehmlich auf dem Fernstraßenbau des Bundes, so haben nun auch einzelne Länder konkrete Vorstellungen über eine Zusammenarbeit mit Privaten im Bereich des Baus und der Unterhaltung von Straßen entwickelt. Die Einbeziehung von privaten Ingenieurbüros und Baufirmen bei Straßenplanung, Bauausführung und Bauerhaltung ist inzwischen Standard geworden, werden als Verwaltungshilfe für die öffentlichen Aufgabenträger bezeichnet und finden überwiegend im Innenverhältnis zu der beauftragenden Straßenbauverwaltung statt. B. WITTING berichtet über die Erfahrungen mit öffentlicher privater Partnerschaft und unterschiedlichen Finanzierungsmodellen am Beispiel der Warnowquerung in Rostock, das als Pilotprojekt wichtige positive wie negative - Erkenntnisse zu einer Fortführung der Finanzierung von Straßenbauprojekten nach dem Fernstraßenbauprivatfinanzierungsgesetz (FstrPrivFinG) bietet. Im staatlichen Straßenbau besteht ein Missverhältnis zwischen den bestehenden Baulastaufgaben und den zur Verfügung stehenden Haushaltsmitteln. Der Beitrag von M. MAß zum Bau von Staatsstraßen in gemeindlicher Sonderbaulast beleuchtet die Schnittstelle von Straßen- und Haushaltsrecht am Beispiel des bayerischen Landesrechts und der hierzu ergangenen Rechtsprechung nebst Hinweisen auf Bundesrecht. Anhand konkreter Beispiele für den Bau von Ortsumgehungen zur Ausschaltung von Ortsdurchfahrten erläutert der Autor die mit dem Bau und der Finanzierung von so genannten kommunalen Entlastungsstraßen und ihrer Klassifizierung einher gehenden Probleme für die betreffenden Gemeinden. Der Referent stellt das Sonderprogramm "Staatsstraßen in gemeindlicher Sonderbaulast zur Förderung aus der Kraftfahrzeugsteuer" im Finanzausgleichsgesetz (FAG) vor. Bis-her wurden in Bayern insgesamt 47 Maßnahmen mit einem Finanzvolumen von rund 187 Millionen Euro und einem Fördervolumen von rund 140 Millionen Euro gefördert. Ein Beitrag über die vergaberechtlichen Probleme der Privatfinanzierung im Bau von Fernstraßen behandelt Probleme, die sich aus der Berührung der unterschiedlichen Rechtsgebieten des Straßenrechts, des Privatisierungsrechts und des Vergaberechts ergeben. Das Straßenrecht befasst sich sachlich mit der Erstellung, der Nutzung und der Unterhaltung von Straßen. Im Privatisierungsrecht verbinden sich aufgabenbezogene, ordnungspolitische und finanzielle Aspekte, die gleichermaßen private wie staatliche Aufgaben und Interessen betreffen , das Vergaberecht wiederum behandelt die Auswahl privater Finanziers, das wirtschaftliche Handeln der öffentlichen Hand und die Verteilungsgerechtigkeit. Der Beitrag von M. BURGI setzt sich mit der komplexen Materie der spezifischen Probleme der Public Private Partnership (PPP) im Rahmen der funktionalen Privatisierung und des Verwaltungshandelns auseinander und gibt einen Überblick über Erfordernisse bei der Ausschreibung von PPP-Projekten.
Der Beitrag setzt sich mit folgenden Fragestellungen auseinander: 1. Stellen ältere Kraftfahrer ein Sicherheitsrisiko für den Straßenverkehr dar? 2. Wie wurden diese Frage und die "Fahreignung und Fahrtüchtigkeit älterer Kraftfahrer" in den vergangenen 50 Jahren wissenschaftlich bewertet - insbesondere bei Kongressen der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Verkehrsmedizin und den Deutschen Verkehrsgerichtstagen? 3. Wie haben in den vergangenen 50 Jahren Juristen, Behörden und Gesetzgeber die "Fahreignung älterer Kraftfahrer" gesehen und umgesetzt? 4. Werden morbiditäts- und altersbedingte Beeinträchtigungen der Leistungsfähigkeit rechtzeitig und richtig durch ältere Kraftfahrer erkannt? 5. Wie gehen ältere Kraftfahrer mit erkannten Leistungsmängeln um? 6. Benötigen ältere Verkehrsteilnehmer Aufklärung, Beratung, Fortbildung und Vorsorge- oder Kontrolluntersuchungen? Insgesamt kann festgestellt werden, dass allein aus normalem Altersabbau und hohem Alter kein Rückschluss auf die Fahruntauglichkeit gezogen werden kann. Das wichtigste gesellschaftliche Ziel für die Teilnahme älterer Menschen am Straßenverkehr ist - angesichts der demographischen Entwicklung - die Einsichtsfähigkeit in das altersbedingt verminderte Leistungsvermögen und den Veränderungswillen zu Kompensationsmechanismen bei älteren Verkehrsteilnehmern zu schärfen. Der behandelnde Arzt, Angehörige und sonstige Bezugspersonen sollten alles tun, um den bejahrten Kraftfahrer zu motivieren, sich seiner Selbstverantwortung bewusst zu werden und demgemäß zu handeln.