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At the end of each year, the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) publishes the road safety balance of the closing year. They describe the development of accident and casualty numbers disaggregated by road user types, age groups, type of road and the consequences of the accidents. However, at the time of publishing, these series are only available for the first eight or nine months of the year. To make the balance for the whole year, the last three or four months are forecasted. The objective of this study was to improve the accuracy of these forecasts through structural time-series models that include effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that, compared to the earlier heuristic approach, root mean squared errors are reduced by up to 55% and only two out of the 27 different data series yield a modest rise of prediction errors. With the exception of four data series, prediction accuracies also clearly improve incorporating meteorological data in the analysis. We conclude that our approach provides a valid alternative to provide input to policy makers in Germany.
Effects of time pressure on left-turn decisions of elderly drivers in a fixed-base driving simulator
(2019)
In countries with right lane traffic left-turn maneuvers at intersections are known to be particularly critical for elderly drivers. It has been suggested that the implementation and use of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) might offer a solution to compensate for age-related weaknesses in driving-related skills. In the present paper an experiment is reported which explored the effects of time pressure on the performance of left-turn manoeuvers supported by an ADAS function (time gap assistant). The study was performed in a fixed-base driving simulator with 20 younger (22-37) and 21 elderly drivers (60-84) who were observed when negotiating left-turn manoeuvers on rural roads with and without the assistance function active. Subjects performed the task once under conditions of time pressure once without. Results indicate that both age groups used the assistance function to perform the left-turn manoeuvers with shorter time gaps. Under conditions of time pressure this effect was more pronounced, and the effects of time pressure were stronger for the elderly. However, there were only weak indications for a specific benefit of the assistance function for the elderly.
Traditionally, traffic count statistics in Germany contain the so-called relevant hourly volume, which is defined as the 30th-highest hour of the year when listing the hourly volumes in descending order. When the first edition of the German Highway Capacity Manual (HBS) was prepared in 2001, the Federal Government decided that this 30th hour should be used as the basis for the level of service determination for all Federal freeways and trunk roads. While German freeways are quite well equipped with inductive loop detectors, there are much fewer counts on rural roads and almost no long-term data on urban roads. With the current redraft of the German HBS detailed advice will be given on how to estimate peak-hour demand (all vehicles and heavy vehicle portion), based on the n-th highest hour concept depending on the available traffic counts. As the HBS will be divided into three major parts: freeways, rural roads, and urban roads, three separate chapters for the peak-hour demand estimation will be provided. Whereas for freeways the task consists in finding the comparable site equipped with inductive loop detectors, for urban roads it is a matter of establishing which time periods of the year and weekdays are appropriate for manual short-term counts as estimation of the 30th hour of the year. For all kind of traffic devices the requirements on traffic demand models for level of service calculations are described.
Although cruise control (CC) is available for most cars, no studies have been found which examine how this automation system influences driving behaviour. However, a relatively large number of studies have examined adaptive cruise control (ACC) which compared to CC includes also a distance control. Besides positive effects with regard to a better compliance to speed limits, there are also indications of smaller distances to lead vehicles and slower responses in situations that require immediate braking. Similar effects can be expected for CC as this system takes over longitudinal control as well. To test this hypothesis, a simulator study was conducted at the German Aerospace Center. Twenty-two participants drove different routes (highway and motorway) under three different conditions (assisted by ACC, CC and manual driving without any system). Different driving scenarios were examined including a secondary task condition. On the one hand, both systems lead to lower maximum velocities and less speed limit violations. There was no indication that drivers shift more of their attention towards secondary tasks when driving with CC or ACC. However, there were delayed driver reactions in critical situations, e.g., in a narrow curve or a fog bank. These results give rise to some caution regarding the safety effects of these systems, especially if in the future their range of functionality (e.g., ACC Stop-and-Go) is further increased.