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In the paper it is investigated to what extend one can extrapolate the detailed accident database GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), with survey area Hanover and Dresden region, to accident behavior in other regions and countries within Europe and how such an extrapolation can be implemented and evaluated. Moreover, it is explored what extent of accident data for the target country is necessary for such an extrapolation and what can be done in situations with sparse and low accident information in a target region. It will be shown that a direct transfer of GIDAS injury outcomes to other regions does not lead to satisfactory results. But based on GIDAS and using statistical decision tree methods, an extrapolation methodology will be presented which allows for an adequate prediction of the distribution of injury severity in severe traffic accidents for European countries. The method consists essentially of a separation of accidents into well-described subgroups of accidents within which the accident severity distribution does not vary much over different regions. In contrast the distribution over the various subgroups of accidents typically is rather different between GIDAS and the target. For the separation into the subgroups meaningful accident parameters (like accident type, traffic environment, type of road etc.) have been selected. The developed methodology is applied to GIDAS data for the years 1999-2012 and is evaluated with police accident data for Sweden (2002 to 2012) and the United Kingdom (2004 to 2010). It is obtained that the extrapolation proposal has good to very good predictive power in the category of severe traffic accidents. Moreover, it is shown that iterative proportional fitting enables the developed extrapolation method to lead to a satisfactory extrapolation of accident outcomes even to target regions with sparse accident information. As an important potential application of the developed methodology the a priori extrapolation of effects of (future) safety systems, the operation of which can only be well assessed on the basis of very detailed GIDAS accident data, is presented. Based on the evaluation of the presented extrapolation method it will be shown that GIDAS very well represents severe accidents, i.e. accidents with at least one severely or fatally injured person involved, for other countries in Europe. The developed extrapolation method reaches its limits in cases for which only very little accident information is available for the target region.
Topics of the status report are: Road accidents in Germany ; Socio-economic costs due to road traffic accidents in Germany , German Road Safety Programme. Finished projects: Turning Assist Systems for Trucks ; Handbook „Accessibility in long-distance bus transport“ ; EU project PROSPECT ; Intersection assistance (Euro NCAP) ; Personal Light Electric Vehicles (PLEV) ; Automatic Emergency Braking for Heavy Goods Vehicles ; KO-HAF ; AFAS ; SENIORS ; Adoption of UN-GTR9-PH2. Ongoing and planned research: Safety potential and testing of reversing assistants for passengers cars (M1) and LGV´s (N1) ; Study on winter tires ; Automatic Emergency Braking for passenger cars ; Motorcyclist-friendly safety barriers ; Active motorcycle safety ; EU-Project PIONEERS ; Friction prediction ; Bus safety: smoke gas toxicity ; HMI aspects on Camera-Monitor-Systems ; Activities with regard to UN R 22 and helmets for S-Pedelecs ; Seriously injured road accident casualties ; UNECE IWG on Deployable Pedestrian Protection Systems (Active bonnets) ; GIDAS – new requirements to address new vehicle technology ; Human Body Modelling ; Child Safety at the UNECE with regard to R 129 ; Development of requirements on automated driving functions for vehicle regulations ; EU-Project L3-Pilot ; Development of evaluation methods for driver interaction with assistance and automation (national research and Euro NCAP) ; EU-Project OSCCAR ; PEGASUS ; Development of basic scenarios for the description of control-relevant requirements for continuous automated vehicle guidance ; EU project HEADSTART ; C-Roads Germany ; Practical Test for the Quality of Congestion-Tail Information ; Research program road safety.
The Intersection 2020 project was initiated to develop a test procedure for Automatic Emergency Braking systems in intersection car-to-car scenarios to be transferred to Euro NCAP. The project aims to address current road traffic accidents on European roads and therefore sets a priority of the identification of the most important car-to-car accidents and Use Cases. Taking into account technological and practical limitations, Test Scenarios are derived from the Use Cases in a later stage of the project. This paper presents parts of a larger study and provides an overview of common car-to-vehicle(at least four wheels) collision types at junctions in Europe and specifies seven Accident Scenarios from which the three scenarios “Straight Crossing Paths (SCP)”, “Left Turn Across Path – Opposite Direction Conflict (LTAP/OD)” and “Left Turn Across Path – Lateral Direction (LTAP/LD)” are most important due to their high relevance regarding severe car-to-car accidents. Technical details about crash parameters such as collision and initial speeds are delivered. The analysis work performed is input for the definition and selection of the Use Cases as well as for the project’s benefit estimation. The numbers of accidents and fatalities in accidents at intersections involving a passenger car were shown per intersection type. In both statistics, it was found that accidents at crossroads and T- or staggered junctions are of highest relevance, followed by roundabouts. Focusing on accidents at intersections between one passenger car and another road user shows that around one-third of all accidents and related fatalities could have been assigned to car-to-PTW accidents and one-fifth of all accidents and fatalities to car-to-car accidents. Regarding car-to-car accidents with at least serious injury outcome 38% out of 34,489 car-to-car accidents happened at intersections. These figures correspond to 18% of the fatalities (4,236 fatalities in total). Considering all intersection types, around half of all related accidents happened in urban environments whereas this number decreased to one-third of all fatalities. Further, the proportion of road fatalities per country occurring at intersections varies widely across the EU. Also, there are proportionately more fatalities in daylight or twilight conditions at junctions. Use Cases are supposed to be derived from Accident Scenarios and by adding detailed information for example about the road layout, right-of-way and the vehicle trajectories prior to the collision. Instead of applying cluster algorithms to the accident data, a pragmatic approach was finally preferred to create them. Note: Use Cases serve as an intermediate step between the Accident Scenarios and the Test Scenarios which describe the actual testing conditions. Finally, 74 Use Cases were identified. This large number indicates the complexity of intersection crashes due to the combination of several parameters.
At the end of each year, the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) publishes the road safety balance of the closing year. They describe the development of accident and casualty numbers disaggregated by road user types, age groups, type of road and the consequences of the accidents. However, at the time of publishing, these series are only available for the first eight or nine months of the year. To make the balance for the whole year, the last three or four months are forecasted. The objective of this study was to improve the accuracy of these forecasts through structural time-series models that include effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that, compared to the earlier heuristic approach, root mean squared errors are reduced by up to 55% and only two out of the 27 different data series yield a modest rise of prediction errors. With the exception of four data series, prediction accuracies also clearly improve incorporating meteorological data in the analysis. We conclude that our approach provides a valid alternative to provide input to policy makers in Germany.
Cycling and designing for cyclist in Germany: an overview of road safety, research and guidelines
(2016)
Cycling is considered a social, eco-friendly, pollution-free, low noise and healthy activity and mode of transportation. There are currently around 67 million bicycles in Germany. This number is expected to increase in the near future with greater use of electromotive assisted bicycles. Regarding the expected increase, there should be additional attention given to road traffic accidents involving cyclists. In 2014, 396 cyclists were killed in road accidents in Germany, which is 12 % of all road fatalities. Also in 2014, Germany reported over 78,000 injuries to cyclists. The majority of the fatalities (about 58 %) and 83 % of the serious injuries to cyclists occurred in urban areas. This paper will examine three aspects concerning cyclists. First, the paper will show the main current developments, for example the National Cycling Plan 2020, the effects of the road safety programme and provide an analysis of the German national accident statistics. Second, the paper will give an overview of the regulations, guidelines for road traffic and designing of cycling facilities. Lastly, this study will detail the current and completed research in Germany addressing cyclist. For example, the paper will discuss the topic "Accidents between Turning-off Trucks and Cyclists" Accidents between right turning trucks and straight riding cyclists often show massive consequences. Accident severity is much higher than in other accidents. The situation is critical especially due to the fact that, in spite of the six mirrors that are mandatory for ensuring a minimum field of sight for the truck drivers, cyclists in some situations cannot be seen or are not seen by the driver. Either the cyclist is overlooked or is in a blind spot area that results from the turning manoeuvre of the truck. At present driver assistance systems are discussed that can support the driver in the turning situation by giving a warning when cyclists are riding parallel to the truck just before or in the turning manoeuvre. The paper will describe the requirements for turning assist systems for trucks. The outcome of the study is an overview of the accident situation between right turning trucks and straight driving cyclists in Germany as well as a corresponding test procedure for driver assistance systems. Below are several other projects which will be investigated, too: Accident Risk and Acceptance of Traffic-Rules by Cyclists ; Safety Improvement in Terms of Using Bicycle Paths in the Opposite Direction ; Cycling in Mixed-Traffic ; Observation of Pedal Electric Cycles Riders to Identify Safety Concerns. These three aspects will provide the current situation on the topic of cyclist safety in Germany.
Europe has benefited from a decreasing number of road traffic fatalities. However, the proportion of older road users increases steadily. In an ageing society, the SENIORS project aims to improve the safe mobility of older road users by determining appropriate requirements towards passive vehicle safety systems. Therefore, the characteristics of road traffic crashes involving the elderly people need to be understood. This paper focuses on car occupants and pedestrians or cyclists in crashes with modern passenger cars. Ten crash databases and four hospital statistics from Europe have been analysed to answer the questions on which body regions are most frequently and severely injured in the elderly, and specific injuries sustained by always comparing older (65 years and above) with midâ€aged road users (25â€64 years). It was found that the body region thorax is of particularly high importance for the older car occupant with injury severities of AIS2 or AIS3+, where as the lower extremities, head and the thorax need to be considered for older pedestrians and cyclists. Further, injury risk functions were provided. The hospital data analysis showed less difference between the age groups. The linkage between crash and hospital data could only be made on a general level as their inclusion criteria were quite different.
Advancing active safety towards the protection of vulnerable road users: the PROSPECT project
(2017)
Accidents involving Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) are still a very significant issue for road safety. According to the World Health Organisation, pedestrian and cyclist deaths account for more than 25% of all road traffic deaths worldwide. Autonomous Emergency Braking Systems have the potential to improve safety for these VRU groups. The PROSPECT project (Proactive Safety for Pedestrians and Cyclists) aims to significantly improve the effectiveness of active VRU safety systems compared to those currently on the market by expanding the scope of scenarios addressed by the systems and improving the overall system performance. The project pursues an integrated approach: Newest available accident data combined with naturalistic observations and HMI guidelines represent key inputs for the system specifications, which form the basis for the system development. For system development, two main aspects are considered: advanced sensor processing with situation analysis, and intervention strategies including braking and steering. All these concepts are implemented in several vehicle prototypes. Special emphasis is put on balancing system performance in critical scenarios and avoiding undesired system activations. For system validation, testing in realistic scenarios will be done. Results will allow the performance assessment of the developed concepts and a cost-benefit analysis. The findings within the PROSPECT project will contribute to the generation of state -of-the-art knowledge, technical innovations, assessment methodologies and tools for advancing Advanced Driver Assistance Systems towards the protection of VRUs. The introduction of a new generation safety system in the market will enhance VRU road safety in 2020-2025, contributing to the "Vision Zero" objective of no fatalities or serious injuries in road traffic set out in the Transport White Paper. Furthermore, the test methodologies and tools developed within the project shall be considered for the New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP) future roadmaps, supporting the European Commission goal of halving the road toll in the 2011-2020 timeframe.
The presence and performance of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) has increased over last years. Systems available on the market address also conflicts with vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as pedestrians and cyclists. Within the European project PROSPECT (Horizon2020, funded by the EC) improved VRU ADAS systems are developed and tested. However, before determining systems" properties and starting testing, an up-to-date analysis of VRU crashes was needed in order to derive the most important Use Cases (detailed crash descriptions) the systems should address. Besides the identified Accident Scenarios (basic crash descriptions), this paper describes in short the method of deriving the Use Cases for car-to-cyclist crashes. Method Crashes involving one passenger car and one cyclist were investigated in several European crash databases looking for all injury severity levels (slight, severe and fatal). These data sources included European statistics from CARE, data on national level from Germany, Sweden and Hungary as well as detailed accident information from these three countries using GIDAS, the Volvo Cars Cyclist Accident database and Hungarian in-depth accident data, respectively. The most frequent accident scenarios were studied and Use Cases were derived considering the key aspects of these crash situations (e.g., view orientation of the cyclist and the car driver- manoeuvre intention) and thus, form an appropriate basis for the development of Test Scenarios. Results Latest information on car-to-cyclist crashes in Europe was compiled including details on the related crash configurations, driving directions, outcome in terms of injury severity, accident location, other environmental aspects and driver responsibilities. The majority of car-to-cyclist crashes occurred during daylight and in clear weather conditions. Car-to-cyclist crashes in which the vehicle was traveling straight and the cyclist is moving in line with the traffic were found to result in the greatest number of fatalities. Considering also slightly and seriously injured cyclists led to a different order of crash patterns according to the three considered European countries. Finally the paper introduced the Use Cases derived from the crash data analysis. A total of 29 Use Cases were derived considering the group of seriously or fatally injured cyclists and 35 Use Cases were derived considering the group of slightly, seriously or fatally injured cyclists. The highest ranked Use Case describes the collision between a car turning to the nearside and a cyclist riding on a bicycle lane against the usual driving direction. A unified European dataset on car-to-cyclist crash scenarios is not available as the data available in CARE is limited, hence national datasets had to be used for the study and further work will be required to extrapolate the results to a European level. Due to the large number of Use Cases, the paper shows only highest ranked ones.
A reduction of around 48% of all road fatalities was achieved in Europe in the past years including a reduced number of fatalities with an older age. However, among all road fatalities, the proportion of elderly is steadily increasing. In an ageing society, the European (Horizon2020) project SENIORS aims to improve the safe mobility of older road users, who have different transportation habits compared to other age groups. To increase their level of safe mobility by determining appropriate requirements for vehicle safety systems, the characteristics of current road traffic collisions involving the elderly and the injuries that they sustain need to be understood in detail. Hereby, the paper focuses on their traffic participation as pedestrian, cyclist or passenger car occupant. Following a literature review, several national and international crash databases and hospital statistics have been analysed to determine the body regions most frequently and severely injured, specific injuries sustained and types of crashes involved, always comparing older road users (65 years and more) with mid-aged road users (25-64 years). The most important crash scenarios were highlighted. The data sources included European statistics from CARE, data on national level from Germany, Sweden, Italy, United Kingdom and Spain as well as in-depth crash information from GIDAS (Germany), RAIDS (UK), CIREN and NASS-CDS (US). In addition, familiar hospital data from Germany (TraumaRegister DGU-®), Italy (Italian Register of Acute Traumas) and UK hospital statistics (TARN) were included in the study to gain further insight into specific injury patterns. Comprehensive data analyses were performed showing injury patterns of older road users in crashes. When comparing with mid-aged road users, all databases showed that the thorax body region is of particularly high importance for the older car occupant with injury severities of AIS 2 or AIS 3+, whereas the body regions lower extremities, head and thorax need to be considered for the older pedestrians and cyclists. Besides these comparisons, the most frequent and severe top 5 injuries were highlighted per road user group. Further, the most important crash configurations were identified and injury risk functions are provided per age group and road user group. Although several databases have been analysed, the picture on the road safety situation of older road users in Europe was not complete, as only Western European data was available. The linkage between crash data and hospital data could only be made on a general level as their inclusion criteria were quite different.
Bus or heavy vehicle passenger accidents are rare events, compared with car accidents, but sometimes leads to a large number of victims especially in rollover crash scenarios. Two accidents occurred in Portugal in 2007 and 2013 in which 28 people died and more than 50 are injured, shown the importance of the investigation of such accidents. For the investigation of these accidents multidisciplinary teams are constituted with engineers and police officers. All the factors involved are taken into consideration including road design, traffic signs, maintenance and hardware, human factors, and vehicle factors. In this work a methodology to an accurate collection of the data is proposed. From the information collected the accident is reconstructed using the PC-CrashTM software. From this all the contribution factors are determined and recommendations to mitigate these crashes are listed. These two accidents are rollover accidents and the analysis of the injuries and its correlation with the use of retention systems is very important. From the medical data and with the dynamics of the accident determined simulations of the occupants with biomechanical models are carried out in order to evaluate the effect of the retention systems in the injuries. This analysis is based on injury criteria (such as Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) or Injury Severity Scale (ISS)). With this it is possible to determine if the seat belt was worn or not.