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Paired-comparison study : correlation between Euro NCAP star ratings and accident data from the national German police road accident statistics

  • Today, Euro NCAP is a well established rating system for passive car safety. The significance of the ratings must however be evaluated by comparison with national accident data. For this purpose accidents with involvement of two passenger cars have been taken from the German National Road Accident Register (record years 1998 to 2004) to evaluate the results of the NCAP frontal impact test configuration. Injury data from both drivers involved in frontal car to car collisions have been sampled and have been compared, using a "Bradley Terry Model" which is well established in the area of paired comparisons. Confounders " like mass ratio of the cars involved, gender of the driver, etc. " have been accounted for in the statistical model. Applying the Bradley Terry Model to the national accident data the safety ranking from Euro NCAP has been validated (safety level: 1star <2 star <3 star <4 star). Significant safety differences are found between cars of the 1 and 2 star category as compared to cars of the 3 and 4 star category. The impact of the mass ratio was highly significant and most influential. Changing the mass ratio by an amount of 10% will raise the chance for the driver of the heavier car to get better off by about 18%. The impact of driver gender was again highly significant, showing a nearly 2 times lower injury risk for male drivers. With regard to the NCAP rating drivers of a high rated car are more than 2 times more probable (70% chance) to get off less injured in a frontal collision as compared to the driver of a low rated car.

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Author:Claus Pastor
Document Type:Conference Proceeding
Date of Publication (online):2012/08/02
Year of first publication:2007
Release Date:2012/08/02
Tag:Analyse (math); Fahrer; Fahrzeug; Frontalzusammenstoß; Konferenz; Passives Sicherheitssystem; Schweregrad (Unfall, Verletzung); Statistik; Unfall; Verletzung
Accident; Analysis (math); Car; Conference; Driver; Head on collision; Injury; Passive safety system; Severity (accid, injury); Statistics
Source:2nd International Conference on ESAR "Expert Symposium on Accident Research", S.156-161
Institutes:Abteilung Fahrzeugtechnik / Abteilung Fahrzeugtechnik
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 36 Soziale Probleme, Sozialdienste / 360 Soziale Probleme und Sozialdienste; Verbände
collections:BASt-Beiträge / ITRD Sachgebiete / 81 Unfallstatistik
BASt-Beiträge / Tagungen / International Conference on ESAR / 2nd International Conference on ESAR
Licence (German):License LogoBASt / Link zum Urhebergesetz

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