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Multivariate benefit estimation of future vehicle safety systems

  • Over the last decades the number of traffic accident fatalities on German roads decreased by 77% down to 4968 in the year 2007. This positive development is due to optimisations of vehicle safety, roads and infrastructure and medical rescue issues. Up to now mostly the optimisations of secondary safety measures lead to this effect on vehicle safety. Since some years more and more driver assistance systems are available and lead to a further reduction of all accidents. These new systems are often comfort systems and have not primarily been developed to increase vehicle safety. In contrast to secondary safety systems primary safety systems are able to mitigate and avoid accidents. So in the future it is important to estimate the benefit of these systems in reducing accident numbers as well. Current benefit estimation methods mostly focus on a single system only and not on the combination of systems. In this paper a new method for a multivariate benefit estimation based on real accident data is developed. The paper describes the basic method to estimate the benefit of primary and secondary safety systems in combination. With the presented method the benefit will not be overestimated as it would be by a simple addition of the benefits of single systems. The model will be validated by a multivariate prospective benefit estimation of different vehicle safety systems in comparison to single benefit estimations of the same systems. For this the German In-Depth Accident Database is used. The results show the importance to implement the interactions of safety systems in the estimation process and rate the overestimation by a simple addition of the single system benefits. The validation includes primary and secondary safety systems in combination. The validation is done using more than 3500 real accidents which were initiated by cars. This sample out of the GIDAS database is representative for the current accident situation in Germany. The paper shows the necessity of a multivariate estimation of the benefit for existing and future safety systems.

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Metadaten
Author:Lars Hannawald, Horst Brunner
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:opus-bast-4874
Document Type:Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2012/08/02
Year of first publication:2009
Contributing corporation:Verkehrsunfallforschung an der Technische-Universität Dresden GmbH
Release Date:2012/08/02
Tag:Konferenz; Nutzwertanalyse; Unfallverhütung; aktives Sicherheitssystem
Accident prevention; Active safety system; Conference; Value analysis
Source:3rd International Conference on ESAR "Expert Symposium on Accident Research", S.174-183
Institutes:Sonstige / Sonstige
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 62 Ingenieurwissenschaften / 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften und zugeordnete Tätigkeiten
collections:BASt-Beiträge / ITRD Sachgebiete / 81 Unfallstatistik
BASt-Beiträge / Tagungen / International Conference on ESAR / 3rd International Conference on ESAR
Licence (German):License LogoBASt

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