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Forecasting German crash numbers: The effect of meteorological variables

  • At the end of each year, the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) publishes the road safety balance of the closing year. They describe the development of accident and casualty numbers disaggregated by road user types, age groups, type of road and the consequences of the accidents. However, at the time of publishing, these series are only available for the first eight or nine months of the year. To make the balance for the whole year, the last three or four months are forecasted. The objective of this study was to improve the accuracy of these forecasts through structural time-series models that include effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that, compared to the earlier heuristic approach, root mean squared errors are reduced by up to 55% and only two out of the 27 different data series yield a modest rise of prediction errors. With the exception of four data series, prediction accuracies also clearly improve incorporating meteorological data in the analysis. We conclude that our approach provides a valid alternative to provide input to policy makers in Germany.

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Author:Kevin Diependaele, Heike Martensen, Markus Lerner, Andreas Schepers, Frits Bijleveld, Jacques J. F. Commandeur
Parent Title (English):Accident analysis & prevention
Document Type:Article
Date of Publication (online):2019/10/14
Date of first publication:2019/10/14
Publishing institution:Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt)
Contributing corporation:Vias Institute
Release Date:2019/10/14
Tag:Analyse (math); Deutschland; Entwicklung; Prognose; Statistik; Tödlicher Unfall; Unfall; Verfahren; Verletzung; Witterung
Accident; Analysis (math); Development; Fatality; Forecast; Germany; Injury; Method; Statistics; Weather
Volume (for the year ...):125
First Page:336
page number: Document ends on page ...:343
Außerdem beteiligt:SWOV, Stichting Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Verkeersveiligheid.
Volltext: DOI 10.1016/j.aap.2018.07.022
Institutes:Abteilung Verhalten und Sicherheit im Verkehr
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 36 Soziale Probleme, Sozialdienste / 360 Soziale Probleme und Sozialdienste; Verbände
Licence (German):License LogoBASt / Link zum Urhebergesetz

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