TY  - JOUR
A1  - Matulla, Christoph
A1  - Hollósi, Brigitta
A1  - Andre, Konrad
A1  - Gringinger, Julia
A1  - Chimani, Barbara
A1  - Namyslo, Joachim
A1  - Fuchs, Tobias
A1  - Auerbach, Markus
A1  - Herrmann, Carina
A1  - Sladek, Brigitte
A1  - Berghold, Heimo
A1  - Gschier, Roland
A1  - Eichinger-Vill, Eva
T1  - Climate change driven evolution of hazards to Europe- transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century
N2  - Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.
KW  - Autobahn
KW  - Europa
KW  - Treibhauseffekt
KW  - Umweltschutz
KW  - Verkehrsinfrastruktur
KW  - Verkehrsnetz
KW  - Witterung
KW  - Environment protection
KW  - Europe
KW  - Greenhouse effect
KW  - Motorway
KW  - Network (traffic)
KW  - Transport infrastructure
KW  - Weather
Y1  - 2017
UR  - https://bast.opus.hbz-nrw.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/1951
N1  - Außerdem beteiligt: Deutscher Wetterdienst DWD, Autobahn- und Schnellstraßen-Finanzierungsaktiengesellschaft ASFINAG (Österreich), Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Innovation und Technologie (Österreich)

Volltext verfügabr unter: DOI 10.1007/s00704-017-2127-4
ER  -