TY  - CONF
A1  - Kreiss, Jens-Peter
A1  - Feng, Gang
A1  - Krampe, Jonas
A1  - Meyer, Marco
A1  - Niebuhr, Tobias
A1  - Pastor, Claus
A1  - Dobberstein, Jan
T1  - Extrapolation of GIDAS accident data to Europe
T2  - 24th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles 2015
N2  - In the paper it is investigated to what extend one can extrapolate the detailed accident database GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), with survey area Hanover and Dresden region, to accident behavior in other regions and countries within Europe and how such an extrapolation can be implemented and evaluated. Moreover, it is explored what extent of accident data for the target country is necessary for such an extrapolation and what can be done in situations with sparse and low accident information in a target region. It will be shown that a direct transfer of GIDAS injury outcomes to other regions does not lead to satisfactory results. But based on GIDAS and using statistical decision tree methods, an extrapolation methodology will be presented which allows for an adequate prediction of the distribution of injury severity in severe traffic accidents for European countries. The method consists essentially of a separation of accidents into well-described subgroups of accidents within which the accident severity distribution does not vary much over different regions. In contrast the distribution over the various subgroups of accidents typically is rather different between GIDAS and the target. For the separation into the subgroups meaningful accident parameters (like accident type, traffic environment, type of road etc.) have been selected. The developed methodology is applied to GIDAS data for the years 1999-2012 and is evaluated with police accident data for Sweden (2002 to 2012) and the United Kingdom (2004 to 2010). It is obtained that the extrapolation proposal has good to very good predictive power in the category of severe traffic accidents. Moreover, it is shown that iterative proportional fitting enables the developed extrapolation method to lead to a satisfactory extrapolation of accident outcomes even to target regions with sparse accident information. As an important potential application of the developed methodology the a priori extrapolation of effects of (future) safety systems, the operation of which can only be well assessed on the basis of very detailed GIDAS accident data, is presented. Based on the evaluation of the presented extrapolation method it will be shown that GIDAS very well represents severe accidents, i.e. accidents with at least one severely or fatally injured person involved, for other countries in Europe. The developed extrapolation method reaches its limits in cases for which only very little accident information is available for the target region.
KW  - Accident
KW  - Forecast
KW  - Europe
KW  - Germany
KW  - Great Britain
KW  - Statistical analysis
KW  - Stochastic process
KW  - Sweden
KW  - Schweden
KW  - Deutschland
KW  - Europa
KW  - Großbritannien
KW  - Prognose
KW  - Statistische Analyse
KW  - Stochastischer Prozess
KW  - Unfall
Y1  - 2015
UR  - https://bast.opus.hbz-nrw.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/2280
N1  - Volltext: https://www-esv.nhtsa.dot.gov/Proceedings/24/isv7/main.htm
PB  - National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
CY  - Washington, D.C.
ER  -