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Is there a broken trend in traffic safety in Germany? Model based approach describing the relation between traffic fatalities in Germany and environmental conditions

Lich, Thomas ; Mönnich, Jörg ; Reiter, Nora ; Skiera, Alexander ; Schlender, Thomas ; Georgi, Andreas

Originalveröffentlichung: (2015) 6th International Conference on ESAR 2014
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Freie Schlagwörter (Deutsch): Berechnung , Deutschland , Jahreszeit , Konferenz , Rechenmodell , Statistik , Tödlicher Unfall , Unfall , Witterung , Zeitreihe (stat)
Freie Schlagwörter (Englisch): Accident , Calculation , Conference , Fatality , Germany , Mathematical model , Season , Statistics , Trend (stat) , Weather
Collection 1: BASt-Beiträge / ITRD Sachgebiete / 81 Unfallstatistik
Collection 2: BASt-Beiträge / Tagungen / International Conference on ESAR / 6th International Conference on ESAR
Institut: Sonstige
DDC-Sachgruppe: Soziale Probleme, Sozialarbeit
Sonstige beteiligte Institution: Robert Bosch GmbH. Zentralbereich Forschung und Vorausentwicklung
Dokumentart: InProceedings (Aufsatz / Paper einer Konferenz etc.)
Sprache: Englisch
Erstellungsjahr: 2015
Publikationsdatum: 05.08.2015
Kurzfassung auf Englisch: The declining trend since 1991 in the number of killed people was broken in 2011 when overall 4 009 people died in traffic accidents in Germany. The question arises if there is a stagnating trend of fatalities in Germany in future? By breaking down the accidents with casualties towards a monthly view one can see a decreasing trend of fatalities in the warmer months especially since 2009. When comparing against winter months higher deviations are observed. In December 2011 an increase of 191 traffic deaths were registered (181 in 2010 compared to 372 in 2011). Further analyses of different accident influences were evaluated and their possibility of drastic change from one year to the other was determined. As seen weather- and environmental conditions are one of the major contributing factors and are one of the causes for the increased number of fatalities. To support the underlying assumption a model had been created to calculate the number of traffic deaths on a daily basis approach. As an input, road conditions projected through weather parameters and also different driving behaviors on weekdays or holidays were used. As a result, estimates of daily fatality with up to 75% precision can be achieved out of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 data. Further on it shows that weather and street conditions have a high influence on the overall resulting number of traffic accidents with casualties, and especially to the number of fatalities. Hence it is estimated that approximately 3 300 people were killed in traffic accidents in Germany in 2013 which would be again a reduction of another 13% compared to 2012. Therefore an answer to the question will be that the decreasing trend in traffic fatalities in Germany somehow is not broken when environmental conditions are included in national statistics. Their effects will become more visible in future accident statistics and it is estimated variances of 5% to 8% of the annual number of traffic fatalities in Germany will be seen.